UCF Knights at Marshall Thundering Herd: NCAA Football Betting Pick

Posts AdminArticles, College Football, Football

It’ll be a CUSA-AAC showdown as the UCF Knights are big favorites as they prepare to battle the Marshall Thundering Herd in the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. ESPN will broadcast the action and this Monday showdown is scheduled to kick off at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: UCF Knights vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

In this Monday matchup, UCF is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 18 points. The Knights are also receiving -1450 moneyline odds while the Thundering Herd are +800. If one team finds paydirt early it will create a nice betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 61.5 points.

The game’s total has been driven much higher after opening at 59.5. The original spread (-18) has remained firm.

The disappointing Knights are down 10.2 units so far in 2019 and 5-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 5-7.

The Thundering Herd are up 0.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-8 ATS and seven of their games have gone over the total.

The Knights are 9-3 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Thundering Herd are 8-4 SU.

The Knights are coming off a resounding 34-7 win over South Florida on November 29. The Knights defense allowed the Bulls to run for 134 yards on 41 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Offensively, Dillon Gabriel completed 23 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns. Adrian Killins Jr. (115 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Gabriel (29 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack. Gabriel Davis (eight receptions, 106 yards, two TDs) and Marlon Williams (five catches, 36 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Marshall just put together a 30-27 win over FIU. Isaiah Green completed nine-of-20 passes for 90 yards and one touchdown. Brenden Knox (146 yards on 33 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Green (-3 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the running game as Obi Obialo (five receptions, 31 yards) and Broc Thompson (one catch, 14 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

UCF has run the ball on 54.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Marshall has an overall rush percentage of 59.7 percent. The Knights have rushed for 216.6 yards per game and have 32 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Thundering Herd are totaling 195.6 rush yards per game and have 20 total rushing TDs.

Judging by the numbers so far, it seems like the Knights could have an advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 5.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Thundering Herd have ran for 4.8 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 3.7 to opponents.

The Knights offensive scheme has averaged 320 yards in the air overall and has 34 passing scores so far. The Thundering Herd have put up 200.9 pass yards per game and have 15 total pass TDs.

UCF appears to have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 144.9 yards and throw for 199.9 yards per game. The Marshall D has given up 227.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 134.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.52 to opponents, while the Thundering Herd have given up a 5.8 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Gabriel is up to 3,076 yards this season, and has connected on 60 percent of his 328 attempts with 26 scores through the air and only seven interceptions. He’s got a 9.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.48 over the past two games.

Gabriel Davis (1,166 receiving yards, 12 receiving touchdowns on the year), Otis Anderson (616 rush yards, four rush TDs, 224 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Marlon Williams (466 receiving yards, four TDs) have all played big roles lately.

Isaiah Green has managed to complete 174-of-296 passes for 2,179 yards, 14 TDs and seven INTs for Marshall. His ANY/A sits at 6.36 for the season and 1.71 over his last two outings.

We also expect the Marshall offense to utilize a balanced attack this Monday. Brenden Knox (1,192 rushing yards, 11 rush TDs, 89 receiving yards on the year), Xavier Gaines (142 rush yards, two rush TDs, 294 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Obi Obialo (177 receiving yards) have combined for 405 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last couple of games.

UCF Knights at Marshall Thundering Herd Free Prediction

SU Winner: Knights, ATS Winner: Knights, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The Marshall defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 34 times this season. UCF has produced 31 sacks.
  • Marshall has lost four fumbles this season while UCF has let seven get away.
  • The Knights offense has created 20 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Thundering Herd have put up 12 such plays.
  • The UCF defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Marshall has given up 10 such plays.
  • The UCF offense has created 28 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Marshall has created 20 such runs.
  • The Knights defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Thundering Herd have given up 11 such runs.
  • UCF has won six of its last seven games SU, with a November 8th defeat to Tulsa accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
  • Marshall has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a -11-point loss to Charlotte on November 23rd accounting for its one defeat over that stretch.
  • UCF, as a team, has produced 4.3 yards per carry across its past three outings and 4.7 over its last two.
  • Marshall has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.