UAB Blazers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles – 11/9/2019 Free Pick

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A couple of schools that like running the football, Golden Eagles (-6) are gearing up to welcome their in-conference nemesis UAB Blazers to Southern Miss. This critical daytime game is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and NFL Network has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. UAB Blazers

UAB is getting picked as the underdog and is currently getting 6 points in this CUSA matchup. The Blazers are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Golden Eagles are -240. Some good live betting opportunities may be unveiled during this showdown, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 50 points.

The early action has moved in the direction of the Blazers, as the opening line was -7. The over/under has not changed after being initially posted at 50.

The Blazers are 5-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.5 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 4-4.

The Golden Eagles are up 0.8 units this year. The team is 4-4 ATS and also has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Blazers have gone 6-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against CUSA opponents. The Golden Eagles are 5-3 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.

The Blazers dropped one to Tennessee 30-7 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Volunteers to eat up the clock by rushing for 121 yards on 39 attempts, including two rush TDs. Ty Chandler had a productive day for the Volunteers in that one with 85 rushing yards and a score on 16 attempts. Offensively, the Blazers completed 14-of-30 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Tyler Johnston III went 11-for-22 for 136 yards and three interceptions while Dylan Hopkins completed three-of-eight for 38 yards and one touchdown. Lucious Stanley (34 rushing yards on nine attempts) led the running attack in the loss. Myron Mitchell (five receptions, 63 yards) and Austin Watkins (three catches, 34 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Southern Miss just earned a 20-6 win over Rice. The defensive unit held its territory in the victory, limiting the Owls to only 131 passing yards and eight rushing yards. Austin Trammell was a bright spot in the loss for Rice, recording 52 yards and a score on five catches. For Southern Miss, Jack Abraham completed 23-of-36 passes for 207 yards and one interception. Kevin Perkins (86 yards on 13 rush attempts, two TDs) and De’Michael Harris (41 yards on 12 carries) handled the ground game in the win as Tim Jones (10 receptions, 96 yards) and Quez Watkins (six catches, 67 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

UAB has run the ball on 59.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Southern Miss has a rush percentage of 51.1 percent. The Blazers have produced 142.5 rush yards/game (including 154.3 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have 10 scores via handoffs this year. The Golden Eagles are putting up 118.4 rush yards per game (144.3 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.

Judging by the results this season, it seems like the Blazers should hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has logged 3.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 2.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Golden Eagles have recorded 3.5 yards per carry and allowed 3.5 YPC to opponents.

The Blazers offense has logged 242.1 yards/game through the air overall (254.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Golden Eagles have produced 315.1 pass yards per contest (327 against CUSA competition) and have 14 total pass TDs.

Defensively, UAB seems to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 92.4 yards and pass for 162.9 yards per game. The Southern Miss defense has allowed 255.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 111.5 yards per game on the ground. The Blazers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.74 to opposing QBs, while the Golden Eagles have given up a 7.59 ANY/A.

Offensively, Johnston III is up to 1,639 passing yards this season, and has connected on 105-of-174 attempts with 13 passing scores and 12 interceptions. Johnston III has a 7.15 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.39 over the past two games.

Look for Johnston III to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Austin Watkins (466 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Jermaine Brown Jr. (0 yards) and Kendall Parham (466 yards, five TDs) have all been heavily involved recently.

On the other sideline, Jack Abraham has completed 152-of-216 passes for 2,143 yards, 12 TDs and five INTs. Abraham’s ANY/A stands at 9.42 for the season and 4.04 across his last two outings.

Tim Jones (371 receiving yards this season), Quez Watkins (595 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Kevin Perkins (294 rush yards, two rush TDs) have each played key roles recently. The trio’s combined for 502 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the last two games.

When these two squads met last year, UAB knocked off Southern Miss by a field goal 26-23.

UAB Blazers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles NCAA Pick

SU Winner: UAB, ATS Winner: UAB, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The UAB D has 28 sacks on the year while Southern Miss has 27.
  • The Southern Miss offense has lost four fumbles this season while the UAB offense has lost five.
  • The Blazers offense has created eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Golden Eagles have put up 13 such plays.
  • The UAB defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Southern Miss has given up nine such plays.
  • The UAB offense has created five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Southern Miss has created six such runs.
  • Both defenses have allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Blazers have given up 25 running plays of 10+ yards while the Golden Eagles have given up 28 such plays.
  • The O/U for Southern Miss’ last game was set at 51. The under cashed in the 20-6 victory over Rice.
  • In its last three contests, Southern Miss is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three contests, UAB is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Southern Miss has won four of its last five games SU, with a -15-point loss to Louisiana Tech on October 19th representing its only defeat over that span.
  • The Over/Under for UAB’s last game going into it was 49.5. The under cashed in the team’s 30-7 loss to Tennessee.
  • UAB has produced 4.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.4 over its last two.
  • Southern Miss has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.1 over its past two.