Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction 12/26/18

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The Miami Heat (16-16) and the Toronto Raptors (25-10) go head-to-head at AmericanAirlines Arena. The Heat will try to extend their five-game winning streak. Action begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 26, 2018, and can be seen on NBATV.

Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

In the Heat’s last outing, they dismantled the Orlando Magic, 115-91, as 2.5-point underdogs. The Raptors, on the other hand, were blown out by the Philadelphia 76ers, 126-101, and failed to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Miami game went 4 points over the projected point total of 202, while the Toronto game finished 3.5 points over the projected point total of 223.5.

The Heat forced 19 turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.600 (above their season average of 0.496). Toronto, meanwhile, held Philadelphia to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.8 (below their season average of 23.9). Miami was led by Justise Winslow, who finished with 22 points, six rebounds and five assists. Pascal Siakam, meanwhile fueled Toronto with 26 points and six rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Kawhi Leonard led the Raptors to a 125-115 victory. He notched a double-double with 29 points and 10 rebounds. Toronto was unable to cover as a 12-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 240 points, which was well over the projected point total of 215. Toronto had a better effective field goal percentage (0.583 vs. 0.489). Miami, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (6.0 vs. 8.2).

Raptors matchups have a tendency to go over the total (57.1 percent). Toronto holds records of 25-10 straight up (SU) and 16-19 against the spread (ATS).

Just over half of Heat games have finished over the O/U total. Additionally, Miami is 16-16 SU and 18-14 ATS.

Miami could own the offensive glass in this battle. The Heat rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (26.5 percent), while Toronto ranks 24th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.7 percent). Additionally, the Raptors rank third in effective field goal percentage (0.544), while the Heat rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.503).

Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Free Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank 3 in points allowed in the paint per game (42.9375) while the Raptors rank 8 (46.68571428571428).
  • Toronto ranks third in fast break points per game (18.1) while Miami ranks 26th (10.3).
  • The Heat average 15.6 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Raptors rank 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
  • Toronto averages 5.4 blocks per game, which is ranked 12th in the NBA. Miami ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
  • Toronto ranks 9 in three pointers attempted per game (33.57142857142857) while Miami ranks 16 in three pointers allowed per game (31.34375).
  • The Raptors average 18.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Heat rank 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.4).
  • The Heat rank 3 in rebounds per game (47.9375) while the Raptors rank 14 (45.371428571428574).
  • Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (21.8) while Toronto ranks 18th (24.2).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Toronto is 7-1 and Miami is 10-1.
  • The Raptors are 23-8 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 14-11.
  • Miami is 7-9 ATS at home, while Toronto is 9-9 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Raptors’ 18 road games, they have 9 overs and 9 unders.
  • Of the Heat’s 16 home games, they have 9 unders and 7 overs.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 5-0 ATS over their last five games, while the Raptors are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Toronto has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.4, up from 0.2 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 106.8 points per game (7.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.0 points per game (3.4 above their season average).