The KeyBank Center is the site for a divisional showdown as the Toronto Maple Leafs visit Buffalo to take on the Sabres. The first puck will drop at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 5, and it can be caught live on NBC Sports Network.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres Odds
Toronto (-170) is currently favored over Buffalo (+150), and the oddsmakers have put the Over/Under (O/U) at 6 goals. The odds for betting the total stand at -125 for the over and +105 for the under.
Toronto is 39-28 straight up (SU) and has earned 4.1 units for moneyline bettors this year. 32 of its games have gone over the total, while 31 have gone under and just four have pushed. The Leafs are 17-18 SU on the road in 2017-18.
Toronto has converted on 20.0 percent of its power play chances this season, a figure that’s right around league average. Additionally, it has the seventh-best penalty kill in the league, and it’s successfully killed off 82.7 percent of its penalties.
The Leafs, as a collective unit, have been penalized just 3.3 times per game this season, and 2.2 per game over its past ten games. The team has had to kill penalties just 4.4 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Averaging 31.3 saves per game with a .920 save percentage, Frederik Andersen (33-22-5) has been the primary option in goal for Toronto this season. If Toronto chooses to rest him, however, head coach Mike Babcock could turn to Curtis McElhinney (7-6-1), who has a .931 save percentage and 2.20 goals against average this year.
The visiting Maple Leafs have relied on Mitchell Marner and Auston Matthews this year. Marner has 53 points via 17 goals and 36 assists, and has recorded multiple points 13 times. Matthews has 28 goals and 22 assists to his credit (and has registered at least one point in 32 games).
On the other side of the ice, Buffalo is 20-45 straight up (SU) and has lost 16.4 units for moneyline bettors thus far. Through 65 regular season matches, 33 of its games have gone under the total, while 28 have gone over and just four have pushed. It’s 9-22 SU as the home team this year.
The Sabres have converted on just 17.2 percent of their power play chances this year, a figure that’s ranked 26th in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 18th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 79.7 percent of all penalties.
Sabres skaters have been sent to the penalty box 3.6 times per game in total this season, 3.4 per game over their past five match ups total, and 3.8 per game over their last five at home. The team has had to defend opponent power plays 8.8 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Robin Lehner (27.0 saves per game) has been the top selection in goal for the Sabres. Lehner has 13 wins, 34 losses, and eight overtime losses to his credit and has maintained a pedestrian 2.97 goals against average and a poor .909 save percentage this season.
Jack Eichel (22 goals, 31 assists) will pace the attack for the home team.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Predictions
Free Pick: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
- Toronto has allowed 2.8 goals per game as a team this year, but has allowed 4.0 goals per matchup over its last three games (0-3 SU over that span).
- Power plays and penalty kills may have a key role in tonight’s matchup. The Maple Leafs are 15-9 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 29-26 in games where they serve fewer than 10 penalty minutes, in total. The Sabres are 7-17 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 16-31 when they’re in the box for less than 10 minutes.
- Two of Toronto’s last ten games have ended in a shootout. The team is 1-1 in those games and 6-2 overall in shootouts this season.
- Toronto may hold the upper hand if it’s a tight one late. The teams an impressive 21-10 in one-goal games, while Buffalo is only 9-21 in such games.
- The under has hit in three of Buffalo’s last five outings.
- Buffalo has averaged 5.6 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 6.9 giveaways per game (the 6th-fewest in the league).
- Toronto skaters have averaged 9.0 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 12.0 giveaways per game (ranked 27th).
