In their fourth and last head-to-head meeting of the regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators face off at Canadian Tire Centre. The first puck will drop at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 30, and you’ll be able to view this Atlantic Division matchup live on CBC Sports.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Odds
Toronto enters the game as the heavy favorite with a moneyline of -225. The line for Ottawa sits at +185, and the Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 7 goals. The odds for betting the total sit at -140 for the under and +120 for the over.
Though the team is 45-32 straight up (SU) this season, Toronto has actually lost 9.5 units for moneyline bettors this year. 39 of its contests have gone over the total, while 34 have gone under and just four have pushed. The Leafs are 22-16 SU as the away team in 2018-19.
Toronto has converted on 21.2 percent of its power play opportunities this year, a figure that’s good enough for 10th-best in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 10th overall, and the team’s successfully killed off 81.3 percent of its penalties.
For the team as a whole, Toronto has been penalized just 2.8 times per game overall in the 2018-19 season, and 2.0 per game over its past five games. The team has been forced to kill penalties just 4.6 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
With a .917 save percentage and 29.8 saves per game, Frederik Andersen (35-22-6) has been the best option in goal for Toronto this season. If head coach Mike Babcock chooses to rest him, however, Toronto could turn to Garret Sparks (8-10-1), who has a .903 save percentage and 3.16 goals against average this year.
Mitchell Marner and John Tavares will both lead the offensive attack for the visiting Maple Leafs. Marner (90 points) is up to 25 goals and 65 assists, and has recorded two or more points 27 times. Tavares has 45 goals and 41 assists to his nameand has notched at least one point in 52 games.
On the other side of the rink, Ottawa is 27-50 straight up (SU) and has lost 6.3 units for moneyline bettors thus far. Through 77 regular season outings, 41 of its games have gone over the total, while 31 have gone under and just five have pushed. It’s 17-21 SU at home this year.
Ottawa has converted on 20.1 percent of its power play opportunities this year, a mark that’s right around league average. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 20th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 79.5 percent of all penalties.
Ottawa players have been penalized only 3.4 times per game this season, and 2.4 per game over their past five games. The team’s been forced to stave off opponent power plays just 6.2 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Craig Anderson has stopped 30.8 shots per game as the primary option in the crease for Ottawa. Anderson has 16 wins, 31 losses, and four overtime losses to his credit and has registered a pedestrian 3.46 goals against average and a poor .904 save percentage this season.
Mark Stone (28 goals, 34 assists) will lead the offensive counter for the Sens.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Free Picks
NHL Prediction: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Under
Betting Trends
- For both of these teams, the total has gone over in three of their last five matches.
- The Senators are 14-17 when the team serves fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 22-34 in games where they serve fewer than 10 total penalty minutes.
- Ottawa has averaged 6.6 takeaways per game over its last five home games, a drop-off from its season average of 7.5 takeaways per game (ranked 19th overall).
- Toronto is ranked eighth in the league with 8.5 takeaways per game. That figure has trended down lately, however, as the team has averaged 7.4 takeaways over its last 10 games and 6.6 takeaways over its last five.
