Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Free Pick

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The Minnesota Twins are set to play host to the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field. Fox Sports North will be airing this AL showdown and the action gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

Toronto (+160) is the underdog to Minnesota (-170) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this day game at 8 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total currently stand at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at -135 for the Blue Jays +1.5 runs and +115 for the Twins -1.5 runs.

The Twins are 9-6 straight up (SU) and 7-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 2.8 units for moneyline bettors while earning 0.1 units ATS. Minnesota has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Blue Jays have gone 7-12 SU this year and are 9-9 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 3.6 units for moneyline gamblers over the early portions of the season, but have gained 0.5 units ATS. Toronto has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Minnesota games have an over/under record of 8-6 thus far in 2019. The Blue Jays have an over/under record of 7-11.

Right-hander Clay Buchholz will get the nod for Toronto. Buchholz is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA and two strikeouts. He has yet to face the Twins this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Twins will put the ball in the right hand of Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.00 ERA), who has 15 strikeouts and two walks this season as well as a 1.00 WHIP. Pineda did not record any MLB pitching stats last season.

As a unit, Minnesota’s pitching staff has yielded 4.3 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.75 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 9.7 K/9.

The Minnesota hitters are putting up 5.1 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .253/.350/.435 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Twins’ hitters have been led by shortstop Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler. Polanco is hitting .429/.484/.768 with 24 hits, five RBIs and 11 runs scored, and Kepler is batting .259 with 15 hits, eight RBIs and eight runs scored.

In the other dugout, Toronto’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.26 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.97 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.89, along with a K/9 of 10.64.

Blue Jays hitters have slashed .215/.292/.348 on their way to 3.6 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Toronto’s offense has been led by Freddy Galvis and Randal Grichuk. Galvis is slashing .338/.365/.606 with five home runs, 11 RBIs and 10 runs scored. Grichuk (.224/.316/.448) is up to three homers, six RBIs and 13 runs scored.

The Blue Jays have lost 8.6 units and are 5-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in six of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Twins have netted 2.8 units and are 7-7 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to six that went under the total.

Blue Jays at Twins MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Blue Jays, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Toronto has recorded 12 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Minnesota has 16 XBH over its last five.
  • The Blue Jays have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Twins have hit 19 over their last 10.
  • The Blue Jays have a total OPS of .640 this season and an OPS of .654 against right-handed pitchers. The Twins’ OPS sits at .813 overall and .795 against righties.
  • Minnesota has posted 23.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.0 over its last five.