Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers: NCAA Football Free Pick

Posts AdminArticles, College Football, Football

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (-1.5) are set to face off against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN2 and kickoff for this Big 12 game is set for 12:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

In this Saturday Big 12 game, Texas Tech is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 1.5 points. The Red Raiders are also receiving -120 moneyline odds while the Mountaineers are +100. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 60 points. If one side can catch a lucky break in the early stages, it’ll probably produce a nice live betting opportunity.

This game’s line opened at 0. The total has not changed after being set initially at 60.

The Red Raiders have lost 3.2 units so far and are 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-3.

The Mountaineers have gained 0.2 units this season. The team is 3-4-1 ATS and has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Red Raiders are 3-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Mountaineers are 3-5 SU overall and are also 1-4 SU in conference play.

These two programs met last year with the final outcome being a 42-34 victory for West Virginia.

The Red Raiders are looking to get back in stride after a 37-34 defeat to Kansas on October 26. Jett Duffey completed 23-of-34 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns. SaRodorick Thompson (80 yards on 20 rush attempts, one TD) and Armand Shyne (53 yards on 12 carries) provided the running attack while Dalton Rigdon (seven receptions, 76 yards, one TD) and KeSean Carter (three catches, 24 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Baylor knocked off this West Virginia team by a score of 17-14. The Mountaineers defensive unit let the Bears run for 176 yards on 56 rush attempts. Denzel Mims had a good showing for Baylor, recording 99 yards on five catches. For West Virginia, Austin Kendall completed 20-of-39 passes for 205 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Kendall (20 yards on nine rush attempts) handled the running game as Winston Wright (four receptions, 31 yards) and Isaiah Esdale (three catches, 26 yards) led the West Virginia pass-catchers in the loss.

Each of these teams has a strikingly similar (45-55) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Red Raiders have run for 173 yards per game (including 176.4 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Mountaineers haven’t been as successful, as they’re putting up 78.9 rushing yards per game (78.8 in conference) and have seven total rush TDs.

The Red Raiders offense has tallied 305.3 yards per contest through the air overall (283.6 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Mountaineers have put up 223.4 pass yards per outing (223 in the Big 12) and have 13 total pass TDs.

Texas Tech has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 175.6 yards and pass for 284.9 yards per game. The West Virginia D has allowed 235.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 177.8 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Red Raiders have given up an ANY/A of 7.44 to opposing QBs, while the Mountaineers are yielding an ANY/A of 7.19.

Passing-wise, Duffey is up to 1,181 yards this season. The signal-caller has connected on 65 percent of his 141 attempts with eight scores through the air and only two interceptions. He’s got an 8.17 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 6.61 over the last two outings.

We’re looking for Red Raiders to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Dalton Rigdon (285 yards, three TDs) has been a recent factor in the passing game, but the RB tandem of SaRodorick Thompson (492 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Armand Shyne (333 rush yards, three rush TDs) have been focal points in the offensive scheme for Texas Tech.

Austin Kendall has connected on 146-of-230 passes for 1,452 yards, 10 TDs and eight INTs for West Virginia. His ANY/A stands at 5.09 for the year and 5.55 over his last two outings.

The Mountaineers also prefer to keep their backfield involved. In addition to George Campbell (183 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Leddie Brown (183 rush yards, one rush TD) and T.J. Simmons (-4 rush yards, 335 receiving yards, two TDs) have gotten quite a few touches lately.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Pick

SU Winner: Texas Tech, ATS Winner: Texas Tech, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The O/U for Texas Tech’s last game was 65. The over cashed in the team’s 37-34 loss to Kansas.
  • Texas Tech has produced 4.3 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
  • West Virginia has averaged 1.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 1.2 over its last two.
  • West Virginia has lost three fumbles this season while Texas Tech has let four get away.
  • In its last three contests, Texas Tech is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • Texas Tech has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 10-point win over Oklahoma State on October 5th accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
  • The O/U for West Virginia’s previous matchup going into it was 56.5. The under cashed in the 17-14 defeat to Baylor.
  • In its last three matchups, West Virginia is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Mountaineers have made 10 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Red Raiders have produced 13 such plays.
  • The Texas Tech defense has allowed 15 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while West Virginia has given up three such plays.
  • The Texas Tech offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while West Virginia has created five such runs.
  • The Red Raiders defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Mountaineers have given up five such runs.
  • The West Virginia D has tallied 26 sacks on the year while Texas Tech has just 17.