Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns: NCAA Football Betting Free Pick

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The Texas State Bobcats (+23) are making a trip east to face their conference foe Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Cajun Field. The matchup kicks off at 5:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN+.

Betting Preview: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Texas State Bobcats

Louisiana has been tabbed as heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 23 points to Texas State. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58 points, and there should be some decent live betting scenarios in the game.

This game’s line opened at -22, while the O/U has yet to move since being set initially at 58.

The hapless Bobcats are 0-4-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are up 1.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-3.

The Bobcats are only 2-5 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 5-2 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.

The Bobcats lost to Arkansas State 38-14 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Red Wolves to eat up the clock by rushing for 206 yards on 53 attempts, including three rush TDs. Marcel Murray had a productive day for the Red Wolves in that one with 114 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 22 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Tyler Vitt completed only 15-of-27 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Caleb Twyford (76 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Jeremiah Haydel (three receptions, 56 yards) and Jah’Marae Sheread (two catches, 33 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns just earned a 37-20 win over Arkansas State. The defense allowed the Red Wolves to pass for 303 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 170 yards. Marcel Murray was a bright spot in the loss for Arkansas State, accounting for 164 rushing yards on 35 attempts, along with 38 yards on three catches. For Louisiana, Levi Lewis completed 17-of-24 passes for 181 yards and one interception. Elijah Mitchell (109 rushing yards on 23 attempts, two TDs) and Raymond Calais (144 yards on eight carries, two TDs) handled the running game as Ja’Marcus Bradley (six receptions, 72 yards) and Jalen Williams (three catches, 39 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

Texas State has run the ball on 43.7 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 52.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Louisiana has a run percentage of 60.5 percent, and has rushed the ball 64.4 percent of the time against SBC opponents. The Bobcats have produced 82.4 rush yards/game (including 131.3 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns are totaling 286.9 rush yards per game (237.7 in conference) and have 27 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Ragin’ Cajuns could hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has generated 6.9 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 4.1 YPC to opponents. The Bobcats have rushed for 2.9 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.8 to opponents.

The Bobcats offense has tallied 229.1 yards per contest through the air overall (173.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing TDs so far. The Ragin’ Cajuns have put up 206 pass yards per outing (159 against SBC competition) and have 10 total pass scores.

Defensively, Texas State has allowed 216.4 rush yards and 190.1 pass yards per game. The Louisiana defense has allowed 197.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 165.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.11 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats have allowed a 5.64 ANY/A.

Offensively, Vitt is up to 237 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 60 percent of his 45 attempts with two passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 1.43 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.68 over the last two outings.

Levi Lewis has managed to complete 96-of-146 passes for 1,161 yards, eight TDs and three INTs for Louisiana. His ANY/A sits at 7.52 for the season and 4.98 across his past two games.

When these two squads met a year ago, Louisiana earned the win 42-27.

Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Louisiana, ATS Winner: Texas State, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • Each team has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Bobcats have have made nine pass plays of 30+ yards while the Ragin’ Cajuns have created eight such plays.
  • The Texas State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Louisiana has given up three such plays.
  • The Texas State offense has created nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Louisiana has created 22 such runs.
  • The Bobcats defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Ragin’ Cajuns have given up nine such runs.
  • The Louisiana defensive unit has notched twice as many sacks as Texas State this year (16 versus eight).
  • As a team, Texas State has produced 3.3 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.
  • Louisiana has averaged 5.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matches, Louisiana is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Texas State’s previous game was 61. The under cashed in the team’s 38-14 loss to Arkansas State.
  • The O/U for Louisiana’s last matchup was set at 69. The under cashed in that 37-20 victory over Arkansas State.
  • Louisiana has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -10-point loss to Appalachian State on October 9th accounting for its one slip-up over that stretch.