Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats: College Football Free Pick

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Two schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Tennessee Volunteers (+2) are set to face off against their SEC nemesis Kentucky Wildcats (-2) at Kroger Field. The matchup is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and SEC Network will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers

In this Saturday Southeastern game, Kentucky has been projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 2 points. The Volunteers are also receiving +100 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are -120. Some good live betting opportunities should present themselves during the game, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 41.5 points.

The betting odds have shifted a hair from when they were originally posted. The line opened at -3 while the game’s total was set initially at 41.

Each team has rewarded gamblers this year as the Volunteers have gained 1.7 units while the Wildcats are up 2.9 units.

The Volunteers have gone 4-5 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against SEC opponents. The Wildcats are 4-4 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play.

The Volunteers hope to keep things rolling after a 30-7 victory over UAB last week where the Volunteers completed 16-of-27 passes for 181 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Jarrett Guarantano went 13-for-21 for 147 yards, one touchdown and one interception while J.T. Shrout completed three-of-six for 34 yards. Ty Chandler (85 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) led the running attack in the win while Jauan Jennings (five receptions, 70 yards) and Dominick Wood-Anderson (three catches, 34 yards) manned the receiving duties.

Kentucky is coming off of a 29-7 win over Missouri. The defensive unit let the Tigers rush for 125 yards on 34 attempts. Tyler Badie had a good showing in the loss for Missouri, recording 31 rushing yards on six attempts, along with 82 yards on two catches. For Kentucky, Lynn Bowden Jr. completed three-of-seven passes for 54 yards. Bowden Jr. (204 yards on 21 rush attempts, two TDs) and Asim Rose (51 yards on 15 carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win as Bryce Oliver (one receptions, 44 yards) and Josh Ali (one catch, nine yards) led the Kentucky pass-catchers.

Tennessee has run the ball on 57.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kentucky has a rush percentage of 59.9 percent. The Volunteers have run for 138.6 yards/game (including 119.2 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have seven scores via handoffs this year. The Wildcats are logging 201.4 rush yards per game (199.3 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

The Vols offensive scheme has logged 210.2 yards/game in the air overall (211.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have put up 154 pass yards per outing (127 in the SEC) and have seven total pass TDs.

Defensively, Tennessee has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 137.7 yards and throw for 213.3 yards per game. The Kentucky defense has allowed 180.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 174.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Vols have given up an ANY/A of 4.86 to opposing QBs, while the Wildcats are yielding an ANY/A of 4.84.

Offensively, Guarantano is up to 1,058 passing yards this season, and has completed 87-of-142 attempts with nine scores through the air and five interceptions. Guarantano has a 6.09 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.00 over the last two outings.

Jauan Jennings (548 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Ty Chandler (491 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Marquez Callaway (282 receiving yards, three TDs) have all played significant roles recently.

For the home team, Lynn Bowden Jr. has completed 13-of-22 passes for 171 yards, one TD and zero INTs. Bowden Jr.’s ANY/A stands at 8.00 for the season and 2.96 over his past two outings.

We also expect the Kentucky offense to mix things up this Saturday. Lynn Bowden Jr., Asim Rose and Bryce Oliver have collectively accounted for 444 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns as a trio the last couple of outings.

These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 24-7 win for Tennessee.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAA Pick

SU Winner: Kentucky, ATS Winner: Kentucky, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • The Tennessee D has sacked opposing QBs 23 times this year. Kentucky has produced 19 sacks.
  • The Kentucky offense has lost nine fumbles this season while the Tennessee offense has let five get away.
  • The Volunteers offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wildcats have accounted for three such plays.
  • The Tennessee defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Kentucky has given up one such play.
  • The Tennessee offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kentucky has created 23 such runs.
  • The Volunteers defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up 12 such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Kentucky’s last outing was set at 43.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-7 win over Missouri.
  • Over its last three matches, Kentucky is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • Over its last three games, Tennessee is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Tennessee’s previous game was 49.5. The under cashed in the team’s 30-7 triumph over UAB.
  • Tennessee, as a team, has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.3 over its last two.
  • Kentucky has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.5 over its last two.