Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins Free Pick

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The Tampa Bay Rays will travel a few hours south to play the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. This interleague matchup will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox Sports Sun to catch the game.

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Tampa Bay (-125) as the favorite over Miami (+115). The total stands at 7.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for +100. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds coming in at Rays -1.5 runs (+120) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-140).

The Marlins are 45-39 against the spread (ATS), but just 34-51 straight up (SU). They’ve gained 1.2 units for moneyline bettors while earning 2.8 units (ATS). The Rays are 42-41 SU and have gone 48-34 ATS. In total, the teams gained 6.8 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 13.8 units ATS.

Miami games have an over/under record of 43-39-2 so far in 2018. Tampa Bay has been a good under bet with a total record of 34-45-3.

Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start for the visiting Rays. Eovaldi (2-3, 4.08 ERA) has recorded 30 strikeouts in 35.1 innings so far. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Marlins are planning to start lefty Wei-Yin Chen (2-5, 6.14 ERA), who’s got 41 punchouts and 25 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.62 WHIP. Chen only made one start against the Rays in 2017 (0-0, 3.00 ERA and seven strikeouts across six innings).

Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The teams starting pitching staff has a 4.71 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.76 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

Miami’s hitters are putting up 3.7 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .228/.277/.340 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Third baseman Brian Anderson and second baseman Starlin Castro have led the Marlins hitters this year. Anderson is slashing .288/.363/.411 with five home runs, 40 RBIs and 47 runs scored, while Castro’s line sits at .280/.328/.389 with five homers, 31 RBIs and 49 runs.

In the other dugout, Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starters own a 3.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 8.60 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.45, along with a K-per-9 of 8.17.

The Rays offense has slashed .250/.324/.384 on its way to 3.9 runs scored per game this year, including 3.7 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 2.4 per game over the teams last five outings (4-1 SU).

Third baseman Matt Duffy and catcher Wilson Ramos continue to lead Tampa Bay’s hitters. Duffy is hitting .321/.365/.430 with four home runs, 25 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Ramos (.290/.337/.459) is up to 11 homers, 43 RBIs and 24 runs scored.

The Marlins have lost 1.2 units and are 29-32 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 31 of those games, as opposed to 28 that’ve hit the under against righties.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Rays, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in four of Tampa Bay’s last seven games.
  • The Rays have won eight of their last nine games SU.
  • Tampa Bay has posted 19.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.0 over its last five.
  • The Rays have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 11 over their last 10.