Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins Free Pick

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The Tampa Bay Rays will be taking on the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Fox Sports North will broadcast this AL matchup and the game gets going at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

The Twins are 52-40 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 43-50 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 7.5 units for moneyline bettors while earning 9.3 units (ATS). Minnesota has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in five of those seven. The Rays have gone 49-46 SU this year and are 54-40 ATS. Overall, the teams gained 8.0 units for moneyline gamblers and 14.3 units ATS. Tampa Bay has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Twins games have an over/under record of 44-45-3 so far in 2018. The Rays have been a good under bet with a total record of 38-53-3.

The right-handed Ryne Stanek is projected to start for the visiting Rays. Stanek (1-2, 1.93 ERA) has racked up 41 strikeouts in 32.2 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Minnesota this year.

The Twins are putting the ball in the hands of righty Fernando Romero (3-3, 4.38 ERA), who has 44 punchouts and 19 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.34 WHIP. Romero has yet to face the Rays this year and did not record any MLB pitching stats in 2017.

Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.79 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.78 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.53, along with a K/9 of 8.12.

Rays hitters have slashed .255/.328/.396 on their way to 4.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 6.0 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 7.4 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Tampa Bay’s offense has been fueled by third baseman Matt Duffy and catcher Wilson Ramos. Duffy is slashing .316/.370/.413 with four home runs, 27 RBIs and 32 runs scored. Ramos is hitting .297 with 14 homers, 53 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Minnesota’s pitchers have given up 4.7 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.38, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.7. The bullpen has a 4.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.

The Minnesota offense is putting up 4.4 runs per outing, including 6.3 per game over its last 10 games and 6.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .322/.388/.520 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Left fielder Eddie Rosario and shortstop Eduardo Escobar have led the Twins offense this year. Rosario is hitting .307/.348/.536 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs and 62 runs scored, while Escobar’s line is .274/.328/.512 with 14 homers, 57 RBIs and 41 runs.

The Rays have lost 0.8 units and are 34-29 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 28 of those games, as opposed to 33 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 3.9 units and are 36-30 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs cashed in 34 of those games, compared to 30 that went under.

Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Rays, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • Tampa Bay has recorded 25 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Minnesota has 19 XBH over its last five.
  • Minnesota has posted 27.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 29.6 over its last five.
  • The Rays have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.