The Tampa Bay Lightning, led by Mikhail Sergachev and Kevin Shattenkirk, are set to take the ice against Mitchell Marner, Morgan Rielly, and the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena for an Atlantic Division showdown. The match will get going at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 10, and fans at home are able to witness the game live on Sportsnet Ontario.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
Tampa Bay (-105) is currently the underdog to Toronto (-115), and the oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 7 goals (-125 under, +105 over).
Losing 0.8 units for moneyline gamblers, Toronto is 2-2 straight up (SU) overall this year. That early-season winning percentage is a regression from the 46-36 record that the team managed during last year’s regular season campaign. This year, the team’s 1-2 SU at home.
The Maple Leafs have successfully scored on 23.5 percent of their power play opportunities thus far. That’s a noticeable improvement from last season, when they were ranked 11th in the league by scoring on 20.9 percent of their extra-man opportunities. Their penalty kill has improved nicely year-over-year as they’ve gone from successfully defending 78.5 percent of opponents’ power plays (ranked 25th overall last season) to 85.7 percent this year.
Averaging 26.0 saves per game with a .918 save percentage, Frederik Andersen (two wins, one loss) has been the most dependable goalkeeper for Toronto this season. If the Leafs decide to give him a breather, however, head coach Mike Babcock may turn to Michael Hutchinson (0-1-1 record, .881 save percentage, 4.62 goals against average).
Over on the other bench, Tampa Bay is 1-2 straight up (SU) and has lost 1.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline thus far. All three of the team’s games this season have gone over. The Lightning are 0-2 SU as the visiting team this season.
The Bolts have scored on 22.2 percent of their power play chances this year after converting on 28.1 percent of their extra-man opportunities in 2018-19 (when the team ranked first league-wide in that category). The team has gone from successfully defending 83.8 percent of opponent power plays (ranked fifth overall last season) to 66.7 percent in 2019-20.
Andrei Vasilevskiy (29.5 saves per game) has been the primary option in goal for Tampa Bay. Vasilevskiy has one win and one to his credit, while registering a .908 save percentage and 3.06 goals against average this year.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Free Picks
Prediction: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Over
Betting Notes
- After losing both of their shootouts last year, the Maple Leafs are off to a 0-1 start in shootouts this season. The Lightning were 6-1 in shootouts last year and has yet to participate in one this time around.
- The total has gone over in three of Tampa Bay’s last five outings.
- Tampa Bay has managed 24.0 shot attempts per game over its last five road games while Toronto has been attempting 37.7 shots per game over its last five at home.
- Tampa Bay has yet to lose a game by two more more goals this season.
- Tampa Bay skaters recorded 26.3 hits per game last season, while the Leafs posted 18.8 hits per contest.
