Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Free Pick

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Two of the leagues best at finding the net on the power play, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Pittsburgh Penguins take the ice at PPG Paints Arena for an Eastern Conference tilt. This one will get underway at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 25 and it can be watched live on AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Odds

Tampa Bay is 16-5 straight up (SU) and has netted 9.1 units for moneyline bettors this year. Through 21 regular season outings, 13 of its games have gone over the total, while eight have gone under and none have pushed. The Bolts are 7-2 SU as an away team in 2017-18. Tampa Bay comes into the match up with the first-strongest power-play unit in the NHL, as it’s scored on 27.2 percent of its extra-man chances this season. Its penalty kill is ranked 11th overall, and it has successfully killed off 83.3 percent of its penalties. For the team as a whole, Tampa Bay has been penalized 4.2 times per game this season, and 3.4 per game over its last five on the road. The teams had to stave off opponent power plays just 7.8 minutes per game over their last 10 outings. Boasting a .929 save percentage and 30.4 saves per game, Andrei Vasilevskiy (15-3-1) has been the best option in goal for Tampa Bay this year. If Tampa Bay chooses to rest him, however, head coach Jon Cooper may roll with Peter Budaj (1-2-1 record, .873 save percentage, 3.33 goals against average). Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov will both spearhead the attack for the visiting Lightning. Stamkos (36 points) is up to 10 goals and 26 assists, and has recorded multiple points in 11 different games. Kucherov has 17 goals and 16 assists to his credit, and has registered at least one point in 17 games. On the other side of the ice, Pittsburgh is 11-13 straight up (SU) and has lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this year. Through 24 regular season contests, 12 of its games have gone over the total, while 11 have gone under and none have pushed. The teams 6-3 SU at home this season. Pittsburgh has converted on 24.7 percent of its power play opportunities this year, a mark that’s good enough for fourth-best in the league. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 27th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 76.3 percent of all opponent power plays. Pittsburgh skaters have been called for penalties 4.8 times per game in total this season, and 3.6 per game over their last five home outings. The teams had to kill penalties just 8.3 minutes per game over their last 10 outings. Matt Murray has stopped 26.9 shots per game as the top option in goal for Pittsburgh. Murray has 11 wins, nine losses, and one overtime loss to his credit and has recorded a poor .906 save percentage and 2.94 goals against average this year. The Pens will be led on offense by Phil Kessel (nine goals, 18 assists).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Predictions

Predictions: SU Winner – Penguins, O/U – Under

Betting Notes

  • The total has gone over in three of Pittsburgh’s last five games.
  • Tampa Bay has managed 35.4 shot attempts per game over its last five road games while Pittsburgh is averaging 39.8 shots per game over its last five at home.
  • The Lightning are 9-3 in games where they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 7-3 when they serve fewer than 10 penalty minutes, in total.
  • Pittsburgh skaters have averaged 3.4 takeaways per game over its last five home games, a drop-off from its season average of 5.7 takeaways per game (ranked 25th in the league).
  • Tampa Bay skaters have managed 10.0 takeaways per game over its last five road games, an improvement over its season average of 8.0 takeaways per game (ranked 14th overall).