It’ll be an AAC-CUSA showdown as the Tulane Green Wave (-7) are favorites against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. The matchup kicks off at 11:30 a.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on ESPN.
Betting Preview: Tulane Green Wave vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
In this Saturday game, Tulane is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 7 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to lay down $300 to win $100 back on the Green Wave (-300). The Golden Eagles are getting +220 moneyline odds. If one program can create a bunch of points early it would create a worthwhile live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points.
The game’s total has shifted downward after opening at 57.5. The original line of 7 has remained firm.
The Golden Eagles have gained 0.3 units so far and are 6-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-8.
The Green Wave have lost 3.7 units this season. The team is 8-4 ATS and has an even O/U record of 6-6.
The Golden Eagles are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Green Wave are 6-6 SU.
The Golden Eagles came up short to Florida Atlantic 34-17 in a thumping where the passing game the big culprit as Jack Abraham completed 25-of-39 passes for only 182 yards and four interceptions. Steven Anderson (54 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) and De’Michael Harris (25 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack while Neil McLaurin (seven receptions, 60 yards) and Tim Jones (seven catches, 66 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Tulane just suffered a 37-20 loss to SMU. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Mustangs to rush for 197 yards on 38 attempts, including two rush TDs. Xavier Jones put up a solid showing for SMU, accounting for 125 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 attempts. For Tulane, Justin McMillan completed 22-of-37 passes for 242 yards. McMillan (50 yards on 15 rush attempts) and Cameron Carroll (47 yards on 13 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Darnell Mooney (seven receptions, 53 yards) and Tyrick James (five catches, 62 yards) led all Tulane pass-catchers in the loss.
Southern Miss has run the ball on 51.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tulane has a rush percentage of 63.9 percent. The Golden Eagles have produced 122.4 rush yards per game and have 16 scores on the ground this year. The Green Wave are putting up 249.8 rush yards per game and have 33 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it seems like the Golden Eagles ought to hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has allowed only 33 sacks while the D-line registered 23 sacks. The Green Wave, on the other hand, have allowed 35 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 41 occasions.
The Golden Eagles offense has tallied 288.6 yards per game through the air overall and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Green Wave have recorded 205.3 pass yards per game and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, Southern Miss has allowed opponents to run for an average of 111.8 yards and pass for 238.5 yards per game. The Tulane D has allowed 216.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 164.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Green Wave are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.3 to opposing QBs, while the Golden Eagles have allowed a 6.95 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Abraham has put up 3,106 yards on the year. He’s completed 69 percent of his 351 attempts with 17 scores through the air and 14 interceptions. He’s got a 7.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 1.93 over the last two games.
Look for Abraham to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Tim Jones (934 receiving yards and two touchdowns), De’Michael Harris (296 yards, three TDs) and Quez Watkins (934 yards, five TDs) have all been heavily involved recently.
On the other sideline, Justin McMillan has managed to complete 157-of-269 passes for 2,048 yards, 13 TDs and 10 INTs. McMillan’s ANY/A sits at 5.93 for the year and 5.30 across his past two outings.
Look for a balanced offensive approach from Tulane in this one. Justin McMillan, Jalen McCleskey and Corey Dauphine have combined to account for 388 total yards and four touchdowns as a trio over the last two games.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Tulane Green Wave Free Pick
SU Winner: Tulane, ATS Winner: Tulane, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Tulane offense has lost eight fumbles this season while Southern Miss has lost nine.
- The Southern Miss defensive unit has more than twice as many sacks as Tulane this year (37 to 18).
- Southern Miss, as a team, has rushed for 3.3 yards per attempt across its last three games and 2.3 over its last two.
- Tulane has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
- Tulane has dropped six of its last seven games SU, with a 12-point victory over Tulsa on November 2nd representing the only win over that stretch.
