The SMU Mustangs (11-3, 1-0 AAC) can continue a six-game home winning streak when they clash against the South Florida Bulls (7-7, 0-1 AAC) at Moody Coliseum. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 127 points with SMU opening as a 23.5-point favorite. Action starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 31, 2017, and it can be seen on ESPNU.
South Florida Bulls vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
In the Bulls last contest, they lost big to the Houston Cougars, 79-60. Justin Brown put together a solid performance for South Florida, leading both teams in scoring with 16 points on 5-for-12 shooting. Houston held the Bulls to an effective field goal percentage of 0.377 (below their season average of 0.491). South Florida, meanwhile, did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (17-22; 77.3 percent).
The Mustangs come in on a high note after beating the UCF Knights in their last game, 56-51. SMU was lifted by Malik Milton, who was the top scorer from either team with 14 points on 5-for-13 shooting. The Mustangs forced 19 turnovers and held the Knights to an effective field goal percentage of 0.417 (below their season average of 0.498).
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the nations slowest-paced teams square off. SMU ranks 339th in possessions per game (65.1) and South Florida is 331st (66.1). Moreover, the Bulls rank 288th in offensive efficiency (99.2), while the Mustangs rank 38th in defensive efficiency (92.9).
Games featuring these teams have typically finished under the O/U total. South Florida games have finished under 60.0 percent of the time, while 55.6 percent of SMU games have finished under. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Mustangs have a sizable advantage. They are 11-3 SU and 5-4 ATS, while the Bulls are 7-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS.
This is the first time these teams will clash this year. The Mustangs won the lone contest played against each other last season, 84-65. The Mustangs played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.164 and a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 50.0. For those same stats, the Bulls were 0.070 and 25.0, respectively.
South Florida Bulls at SMU Mustangs Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – South Florida, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mustangs rank 40th in rebounds allowed per game (31.6) while the Bulls rank 114th (34.6).
- SMU averages 4.0 blocks per game, which ranks 72nd in the NCAA. South Florida ranks 123rd in blocks allowed per game (3.9).
- On the road, South Florida is 1-1-1 ATS with 2 overs and 1 under.
- At home, SMU is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- SMU ranks 15th in assists per game (18.2) while South Florida ranks 161st (13.2).
- The Mustangs rank 143rd in three pointers attempted per game (21.9) while the Bulls rank 249th (17.4).
- SMU ranks 41st in steals allowed per game (5.3) while South Florida ranks 126th (6.7).
Bettings Trends:
- SMU is 2-2 ATS with 3 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, South Florida is 1-3 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders.
- The Mustangs average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.0, down from 14.9 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 68.8 points per game (3.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 67.8 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
