The Troy Trojans (15-16, 9-9 SBC) and the South Alabama Jaguars (14-17, 7-11 SBC) face off in the Sun Belt Conference Tourney at Lakefront Arena. Troy opened as a 5.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 143.5 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 7, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPN 3.
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Troy Trojans Odds Preview
The Jaguars were beaten by the Georgia State Panthers in their last game, 90-75. South Alabama’s Trhae Mitchell recorded seven points and 10 rebounds in the contest. Georgia State held the Jaguars to an effective field goal percentage of 0.435 (below their season average of 0.498). South Alabama, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of getting and making free throws (21-27; 77.8 percent).
The last time the Trojans played, they were topped by the Georgia Southern Eagles, 89-83. Jordon Varnado led Troy in scoring with 27 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Georgia Southern had a better free throw rate (0.164 vs. 0.103). Troy, on the other hand, held the Eagles to an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.6 (below their season average of 32.4).
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, South Alabama figures to have a noteworthy advantage. The Jaguars defense ranks 19th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.465), while the Troy offense is ranked 136th in effective field goal percentage (0.522).
Of South Alabama’s 27 games with betting action, 14 have finished over the O/U total, while 14 of Troy’s 28 games have finished under the projected point total. Both teams have middling straight up (SU) records (14-17 for South Alabama; 15-16 for Troy), but the Jaguars have the advantage against the spread (ATS). South Alabama is 18-9 ATS, while the Trojans are 12-15-1.
These two teams have already met twice this year, with the Trojans winning both. Mitchell put up 17 points and five rebounds in the most recent matchup, in which the Jaguars lost 80-63, unable to cover as 7-point underdogs. The two teams combined to score 143 points, which was just 3 points below the projected point total of 146 points. The Trojans played a nearly flawless game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 34.2 and a turnover percentage of 13.3. For those same stats, the Jaguars were 24.2 and 18.4, respectively.
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Troy Trojans Odds Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Troy, ATS Winner – South Alabama, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Jaguars rank 198th in steals per game (5.4) while the Trojans rank 227th (4.9).
- South Alabama averages 24.4 three pointers per game, which ranks 66th in the NCAA. Troy ranks 199th in three pointers allowed per game (22.7).
- The Trojans rank 34th in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while the Jaguars rank 164th (3.8).
- Troy averages 36.0 rebounds per game, which ranks 117th in the NCAA. South Alabama ranks 242nd in rebounds allowed per game (37.2).
Bettings Trends:
- Troy is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, South Alabama is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Trojans have been outscored by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Troy has defeated opponents by an average of 2.6 points.
- During their last five games, the Jaguars have scored an average of 70.4 points per game (0.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 79.4 points per game (10.1 above their season average).
