Expect a defensive struggle when the UCF Knights (16-9, 7-6 AAC) and the SMU Mustangs (15-11, 5-8 AAC) clash at CFE Federal Credit Union Arena. Action begins at 11 a.m. ET on Saturday, February 17, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPNU.
SMU Mustangs vs. UCF Knights ATS Preview
The last time the Mustangs played, they lost a tough one against the Memphis Tigers, 70-67. With 33 points on 12-for-25 shooting, Jahmal McMurray was the top scorer from either team. Memphis had a much better free throw rate (0.176 vs. 0.045). SMU, on the other hand, forced the Tigers into a turnover percentage of 21.6 (above their season average of 17.4).
The Knights will look to maintain momentum after beating the South Florida Bulls in their last matchup, 72-57. With 26 points on 9-for-12 shooting, A.J. Davis was the games leading scorer. UCF dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.326 (above their season average of 0.269) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.620 (above their season average of 0.479). For those same stats, South Florida was 0.120 and 0.510, respectively.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the nations slowest-paced teams battle. UCF currently ranks 341st in possessions per game (64.9) and SMU is 346th (63.9). Moreover, the Mustangs rank 282nd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.206), while the Knights rank 25th in opponents FTA rate (0.185).
McMurray has been exceptional over the last five games for SMU, averaging 16.6 points per game.
These teams have already met once this season. The Mustangs won 56-51. The Mustangs 20.4 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Knights, who had a rate of 24.0. Shake Milton scored a game-high 14 points.
SMU Mustangs at UCF Knights Odds Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – UCF, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Mustangs average 3.3 blocks per game, which ranks 121st in the nation. The Knights rank 167th in blocks allowed per game (4.1).
- SMU ranks 60th in assists per game (15.5) while UCF ranks 253rd (11.0).
- The Knights rank 40th in three pointers allowed per game (19.4) while the Mustangs rank 213th (23.5).
- SMU ranks 37th in steals per game (7.5) while UCF ranks 189th (5.3).
Betting Trends:
- The Knights have been outscored by an average of 2.6 points in their last five games. On the season, UCF has defeated opponents by an average of 2.2 points.
- During their last five games, the Mustangs have scored an average of 65.8 points per game (5.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 70.0 points per game (6.5 above their season average).
