San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs: Free Week 22 Betting Prediction

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The San Francisco 49ers (-1) are entering Super Bowl LIV as slight favorites as they prepare to battle the Kansas City Chiefs. FOX owns the TV rights and the game is scheduled to get going at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the underdog in this game and is currently getting 1 point. The 49ers are also receiving -105 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -115. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points. It appears that there should be some solid in-game betting opportunities for this contest.

The over is getting the bulk of the early sharp action, as the game’s O/U initially opened at only 51.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the 49ers have gained 7.0 units while the Chiefs are up 5.6 units.

The 49ers have gone 15-3 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Chiefs are 14-4 SU.

The 49ers are coming off a resounding 37-20 win over Green Bay on January 19 where their secondary allowed the Packers to air it out for 326 yards and two touchdowns. Davante Adams had a productive day for the Packers in that one with 138 yards on nine catches. On the offense, Jimmy Garoppolo completed six passes on 8 attempts for just 77 yards. Raheem Mostert (220 rushing yards on 29 attempts, four TDs) propelled the ground attack in the win while Deebo Samuel (two receptions, 46 yards) and Mostert (two catches, six yards) manned the receiving duties.

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off of a 35-24 win over Tennessee. The team’s defense held its ground in the victory, keeping the Titans to only 237 passing yards and 85 yards on the ground. Corey Davis had a good outing in the defeat, posting 65 yards on five catches for Tennessee. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-35 passes for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Damien Williams (45 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Mahomes (53 yards on eight carries, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack in the win while Sammy Watkins (seven receptions, 114 yards, one TD) and Tyreek Hill (five catches, 67 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching corps.

San Francisco’s run the ball on 53.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has a rush percentage of 39.6 percent. The 49ers have produced 154.2 rush yards per game and have 29 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are putting up 99.9 rush yards per game and have 20 total rushing TDs.

Judging by the results so far, it seems like the 49ers may own the edge when it comes to RB efficiency, as their backfield has generated 4.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.4 to opponents. The Chiefs have recorded 4.3 yards per carry and given up 4.8 YPC to opponents.

The Niners offensive scheme has averaged 235.4 yards in the air overall and has 29 passing scores so far. The Chiefs have produced 294.7 pass yards per outing and have 38 total pass TDs.

Defensively, San Francisco should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 104.7 yards and pass for 198.4 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 250.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.9 yards per game on the ground. The Niners are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.62 to opponents, while the Chiefs have given up a 5.4 ANY/A.

Offensively, Garoppolo has put up 4,055 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 69 percent of his 484 attempts with 27 passing scores and 13 interceptions. He’s got a 7.23 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.53 over the past two outings.

In the home locker room, Patrick Mahomes has completed 342-of-519 passes for 4,325 yards, 29 TDs and five INTs. Mahomes’ ANY/A sits at 8.46 for the season and 10.74 over his past two outings.

When these two teams met last year, Kansas City got the victory 38-27.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: 49ers, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • Both teams have lost 11 fumbles this year.
  • The San Francisco defensive unit has 57 sacks on the year while Kansas City has 53.
  • San Francisco has rushed for 5.3 yards per attempt over its past three contests and 5.3 over its last two.
  • Kansas City has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.8 over its last two.
  • In its last three matchups, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for San Francisco’s last game going into it was 45. The over cashed in the team’s 37-20 victory over Green Bay.
  • In its last three matchups, San Francisco is 3-0 ATS.
  • The O/U for Kansas City’s previous match was 53. The over cashed in the 35-24 victory over Tennessee.