San Antonio Spurs vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction 01/04/20

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The league’s top scoring team will be a 12-point favorite at home in Fiserv Forum, when the Milwaukee Bucks (31-5) square off with the San Antonio Spurs (14-19). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 228.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 4, 2020.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Odds

Neither team was able to cover in their last contest. The Bucks (18-point favorites) defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves, 106-104, while the Spurs (2.5-point favorites) fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 109-103. The Milwaukee game finished 10.5 points under the projected point total of 220.5, while the San Antonio game went 5 points under the projected point total of 217.

The Bucks held the Timberwolves to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.1 (below their season average of 22.9) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.473 vs. 0.456). San Antonio, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.6 (above their season average of 21.0). Milwaukee was led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who contributed 32 points and 17 rebounds. Meanwhile, LaMarcus Aldridge played a key role for San Antonio with 22 points and 12 rebounds.

This was a highly contested series last year, as the teams split their two games last season. The Spurs won the most recent contest 121-114. The Spurs’ turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Bucks. San Antonio had a rate of 3.6, while Milwaukee posted a mark of 9.3. This is the first time these teams will battle this year.

Of the Spurs’ 33 games, 19 have finished over the total. San Antonio heads into the contest with records of 14-19 straight up (SU) and 10-21-2 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas has been spot on when setting the O/U total of Bucks games, with an even split between overs and unders. Additionally, Milwaukee is 31-5 SU and 21-15 ATS.

The Spurs’ Aldridge has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 22 points,8.8 rebounds,2.2 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton has averaged 22 points,6.2 rebounds,5.4 assists during that same time frame for the Bucks.

The high-powered offense of Milwaukee will go head-to-head against the porous defense of San Antonio. The Bucks currently rank second in offensive efficiency, while the Spurs are 21st in defensive efficiency. The Bucks should have the edge on that side of the ball. Furthermore, the Spurs rank 25th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), while the Bucks rank second in defensive rebounding percentage (81.1 percent).

San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks Free Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Bucks rank 13th in steals per game (7.9) while the Spurs rank 25th (6.7).
  • Milwaukee ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.8) while San Antonio ranks last (27.0).
  • The Bucks average 18.7 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the league. The Spurs rank 21st in fast break points allowed per game (13.9).
  • Milwaukee averages 51.9 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the NBA. San Antonio ranks 18th in rebounds allowed per game (46.0).
  • Milwaukee ranks seventh in assists per game (26.1) while San Antonio ranks 22nd in assists allowed per game (25.2).
  • The Bucks rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.1) while the Spurs rank 28th (11.7).
  • The Bucks rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while the Spurs rank 27th (15.4).
  • San Antonio averages 6.0 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Milwaukee ranks 11th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in points in the paint per game (51.8) while San Antonio ranks 24th (45.2).
  • San Antonio is 1-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Milwaukee is 8-0.
  • The Spurs are 14-15 when they score over 100 points, while the Bucks are 31-5.
  • Milwaukee is 11-8 ATS at home, while San Antonio is 5-7-2 ATS on the road.
  • In 14 road games, the Spurs have 8 overs, 5 unders and 1 push.
  • In 19 home games, the Bucks have 10 unders and 9 overs.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, San Antonio and Milwaukee are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Spurs have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Bucks have 3 unders and 2 overs
  • During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 119.8 points per game (6.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (5.2 below their season average).
  • The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, down from 12.9 for the season.