Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction 01/20/20

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A seven-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Miami Heat (29-13) when they take on the Sacramento Kings (15-27) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 5 p.m. ET on Monday, January 20, 2020, and will air on NBC Sports – California.

Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat Betting Odds

Both teams were beaten in their last contest. The Kings (9.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Utah Jazz, 123-101, while the Heat (1-point favorites) fell to the San Antonio Spurs, 107-102. The Sacramento game went 1 point over the projected point total of 223, while the Miami game finished 7 points under the projected point total of 216.

Sacramento made 10 of their 26 three pointers (38.5 percent) while Miami had a better turnover percentage (8.7 vs. 10.3). Miami was led by Bam Adebayo, who contributed 21 points, 16 rebounds and six assists. De’Aaron Fox played a key role for Sacramento with 21 points and eight assists.

The Kings dominated this series last year, winning both games. In the most recent matchup, Sacramento won 102-96. Getting to the free throw line was one of Sacramento’s biggest advantages. They made 25 trips to the line, while Miami went 19 times. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Kings games have gone under the total 52.4 percent of the time. Sacramento heads into the game with records of 15-27 straight up (SU) and 20-22 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Heat’s 41 games that accepted bets, 25 have finished over the O/U total. Further, Miami owns records of 29-13 SU and 23-16-2 ATS.

Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Miami currently ranks 22nd in possessions per game (100.9) and Sacramento is 26th (100.5).

Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat Free Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank 23rd in points in the paint per game (45.3) while the Kings rank 25th (45.1).
  • Sacramento averages 33.6 three pointers per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.0).
  • The Heat rank 16th in rebounds per game (45.5) while the Kings rank 28th (42.3).
  • Sacramento ranks second in fast break points allowed per game (11.3) while Miami ranks seventh (12.2).
  • Miami averages 25.1 assists per game, which ranks 11th in the league. Sacramento ranks 15th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
  • The Kings rank 14th in second chance points per game (13.2) while the Heat rank 27th (11.9).
  • The Kings rank 24th in blocks per game (4.3) while the Heat rank 28th (4.1).
  • Sacramento averages 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Miami ranks 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
  • In games where they allow under 100 points, Miami is 5-1 and Sacramento is 7-2.
  • The Heat are 28-8 when they score above 100 points, while the Kings are 14-20.
  • Miami is 13-5-1 ATS at home, while Sacramento is 13-8 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 12 of the Heat’s 19 home games, while 11 of the Kings’ 21 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Sacramento and Miami have both had 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Kings are 1-4.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 3.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (4.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.8 points per game (8.9 above their season average).