The Sacramento Kings (12-20) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top scoring defense when they challenge the Denver Nuggets (22-9) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 29, 2019, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
In their last outing, the Nuggets (9-point favorites) defeated the Memphis Grizzlies, 119-110, while the Kings (7-point favorites) lost a tough one against the Phoenix Suns, 112-110. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Denver game finished 13 points over the projected point total of 216, while the Sacramento game went 2 points over the projected point total of 220.
Denver’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Memphis. The Nuggets had a rate of 8.7 (better than their season average of 11.8), while the Grizzlies posted a mark of 15.2. Sacramento, on the other hand, had a free throw rate of 0.190 (above their season average of 0.166). Denver received a boost from Nikola Jokic, who registered his sixth triple-double this year. He took over, accumulating 31 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Meanwhile, Harrison Barnes played a pivotal role for Sacramento with 21 points and 10 rebounds.
The Kings evened the season series at one with a 100-97 win in their most recent matchup. Gary Harris had a stellar game with 25 points. The Kings’ 25.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Nuggets, who had a mark of 19.6. The two teams combined to put up 197 points, which was under the projected point total of 205, and Sacramento covered as a 4-point underdog.
Vegas tends to set the total high when the Kings are involved, as 19 of their 31 games have gone under the O/U total. Sacramento heads into the game with records of 12-20 straight up (SU) and 16-15 against the spread (ATS).
Games featuring the Nuggets also have typically gone under the projected point total (66.7 percent). Denver is 22-9 SU, but they are just 11-15-4 ATS.
The Kings’ Richaun Holmes has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 16 points,11.4 rebounds,1.6 blocks,1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Jokic has averaged 21 points,9.4 rebounds,8.2 assists during that same time frame for the Nuggets.
Half-court execution will be critical when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams square off. Denver ranks 27th in possessions per game (100.5) and Sacramento is 28th (100.0). Moreover, the Kings’ 21st-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 105.2) will face a difficult challenge against the Nuggets’ third-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 103.0).
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Kings are third in the league with 11.5 second chance points allowed per game while the Nuggets are fourth with 11.9 second chance points allowed per game.
- Denver ranks eighth in points in the paint per game (48.7) while Sacramento ranks 28th (43.5).
- The Nuggets average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Kings rank 21st in steals allowed per game (8.2).
- Denver ranks 15th in rebounds per game (45.5) while Sacramento ranks 27th (42.4).
- Sacramento ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (10.5) while Denver ranks sixth (12.2).
- The Nuggets rank third in assists per game (26.7) while the Kings rank 23rd (22.2).
- The Nuggets rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while the Kings rank ninth (16.4).
- Sacramento ranks 12th in three pointers attempted per game (34.5) while Denver ranks 25th (30.4).
- Denver is 10-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Sacramento is 6-2.
- The Kings are 11-14 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 20-5.
- Denver is 6-9-2 ATS at home, while Sacramento is 11-7 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 12 of the Nuggets’ 17 home games, while 10 of the Kings’ 18 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Sacramento and Denver have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Nuggets are 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Kings are 0-5.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 113.8 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (4.7 above their season average).
- The Kings’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 2.9 for the season.
