An 11-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Dallas Mavericks (15-12), who will be 4.5-point favorites when they welcome the Sacramento Kings (15-13) to American Airlines Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 228 points and it can be seen on NBC Sports – California at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 16, 2018.
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds
Both teams fell in their last outing. The Mavericks (6-point favorites) were defeated by the Phoenix Suns, 99-89, while the Kings (7.5-point underdogs) fell to the Golden State Warriors, 130-125. The Dallas game finished 22 points under the projected point total of 210, while the Sacramento game went 19 points over the projected point total of 236.
Sacramento had a better turnover percentage (10.8 vs. 13.9) while Dallas had a free throw rate of 0.282 (above their season average of 0.233). Dallas received a boost from DeAndre Jordan, who recorded 14 points and 15 rebounds. Willie Cauley-Stein, meanwhile played a pivotal role for Sacramento with 22 points and 11 rebounds.
This was a highly competitive series last year, as the teams split their four games last season. The Mavericks won the most recent matchup 103-97. One of Dallas’ biggest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They made 25 trips to the line, while Sacramento went 19 times. This will be the first contest of the year between these two teams.
Of the Kings’ 28 games, 18 have finished over the projected point total. Sacramento comes into the contest with records of 15-13 straight up (SU) and 18-10 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Sacramento, Mavericks games have finished under the projected point total 51.9 percent of the time. Moreover, Dallas is 15-12 SU and 17-10 ATS.
This could end up being a mistake-prone game for the offense of Dallas. Dallas ranks 28th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.5 percent), while the pesky defense of Sacramento forces the third-most turnovers in the league (15.6 percent).
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank 3 in blocks allowed per game (4.481481481481482) while the Kings rank 15 (5).
- Sacramento averages 22.2 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Dallas ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (15.7).
- The Mavericks average 33.6 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Kings rank 29th in three pointers allowed per game (34.4).
- Sacramento averages 8.3 steals per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. Dallas ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (9.2).
- Dallas ranks 10 in second chance points per game (14.11111111111111) while Sacramento ranks 23 in second chance points allowed per game (14.535714285714286).
- The Mavericks rank second in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while the Kings rank 28th (47.3).
- The Kings rank 2 in points off turnovers per game (21.392857142857142) while the Mavericks rank 15 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.22222222222222).
- Sacramento ranks 6 in assists per game (25.785714285714285) while Dallas ranks 14 in assists allowed per game (23.666666666666668).
- Dallas ranks sixth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.3) while Sacramento ranks 28th (52.4).
- When allowing below 100 points, Sacramento is 4-0 and Dallas is 4-2.
- When scoring over 100 points, the Kings are 14-11 and the Mavericks are 15-10.
- Sacramento is 9-6 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 12-3 ATS at home.
- The Kings have 12 overs and 3 unders in 15 road games.
- In 15 home games, the Mavericks have 8 unders and 7 overs.
Bettings Trends:
- The Kings are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Sacramento has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Dallas has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 120.0 points per game (4.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.2 points per game (2.8 below their season average).
- The Mavericks have been outscored by an average of 0.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has defeated opponents by an average of 1.8 points.
