Purdue Boilermakers vs. Northwestern Wildcats – College Football Free Betting Pick

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The Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5) and Northwestern Wildcats are set to do battle on the grass at Ryan Field. This afternoon matchup is scheduled to get going at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to BTN.

Betting Preview: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Purdue Boilermakers

In this Saturday Big Ten game, Purdue is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 1.5 points. The Boilermakers are also receiving -120 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +100. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 40.5 points. It appears that there could be some decent live betting opportunities in this showdown.

This game’s O/U was initially set at 41.5, but sharp bettors have been hammering the under.

The less-than-stellar Boilermakers are down 7.0 units so far in 2019 and 5-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-4.

The Wildcats have lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-6.

The Boilermakers have gone 3-6 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 1-7 SU overall and 0-6 SU in conference play.

The Boilermakers just recorded a 31-27 win over Nebraska last weekTheir defense allowed the Cornhuskers to run for 128 yards on 35 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. JD Spielman had a productive day for the Cornhuskers in that one with 123 yards on six catches. On the offense, the Boilermakers completed 31-of-41 passes for 304 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jack Plummer went 25-for-34 for 242 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while Aidan O’Connell completed six-of-seven for 62 yards. King Doerue (71 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Plummer (61 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack in the win. Brycen Hopkins (eight receptions, 97 yards) and David Bell (seven catches, 23 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Northwestern most-recently dropped a one-sided 34-3 game to Indiana. The defensive unit allowed the Hoosiers to eat up the clock by running for 144 yards on 51 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Stevie Scott III had a good outing in the win for Indiana, posting 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 attempts, along with 20 yards on one catch. As a group, the Wildcats collectively completed 12-of-31 passes for 112 yards. Hunter Johnson went seven-for-17 for 65 yards while Aidan Smith was five-of-12 for 47 yards. Drake Anderson (11 rushing yards on seven attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Riley Lees (five receptions, 36 yards) and Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman (three catches, 43 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Purdue’s run the ball on 41.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Northwestern has an overall rush percentage of 56.5 percent. The Boilermakers have rushed for 77.1 yards/game (including 90.7 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have six touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Wildcats are putting up 133.8 rushing yards per game (116.8 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.

The Boilermakers offensive scheme has averaged 301.6 yards in the air overall (266.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 124.3 pass yards per contest (119 in the Big 10) and have two total pass TDs.

Defensively, Purdue has allowed 163.4 rush yards and 244.6 pass yards per game. The Northwestern defense has given up 191.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Boilermakers have given up an ANY/A of 6.58 to opposing QBs, while the Wildcats are yielding an ANY/A of 6.87.

Offensively, Plummer has amassed 1,534 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 62 percent of his 222 attempts with 11 passing scores and seven interceptions. Plummer has a 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.22 over the past two games.

The Boilermakers have tried to maintain the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to tight end Brycen Hopkins (493 receiving yards and three touchdowns), King Doerue (323 rush yards, four rush TDs, 116 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Zander Horvath (101 rush yards, 96 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have really been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Purdue.

Aidan Smith has completed 42-of-95 passes for 362 yards, one TD and five INTs for Northwestern. His ANY/A stands at a minuscule 1.22 for the year and 2.51 over his last two games.

The Wildcats will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman (112 receiving yards), Drake Anderson (416 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Isaiah Bowser (204 rush yards) have seen a lot of touches recently.

These two squads met last year with the final result being a 31-27 victory for Northwestern.

Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats Free Pick

SU Winner: Northwestern, ATS Winner: Northwestern, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The O/U for Purdue’s last game going into it was 57. The over cashed in the team’s 31-27 victory over Nebraska.
  • Purdue has produced 3.2 yards per carry over its past three outings and 3.5 over its last two.
  • Northwestern has averaged 2.8 yards per carry over its last three matchups and only 2.4 over its last two.
  • Both teams have lost seven fumbles this season.
  • Over its last three matches, Purdue is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Northwestern’s last match was set at 44.5. The under cashed in that 34-3 loss to Indiana.
  • Over its last three contests, Northwestern is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Boilermakers offense has created eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wildcats have put up one such play.
  • The Purdue defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Northwestern has given up four such plays.
  • The Purdue offense has created two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Northwestern has created four such runs.
  • The Boilermakers defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up eight such runs.
  • The Purdue D has 17 sacks on the year while Northwestern has 15.