The Portland Trail Blazers, 3.5-point underdogs, will travel to Pepsi Center to clash with the Denver Nuggets in the first game of the Western Conference Semifinals. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216.5 points and it is scheduled to start at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 29, 2019.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
Both teams were triumphant in their last game. The Nuggets (6.5-point favorites) beat the San Antonio Spurs 90-86, while the Trail Blazers (3.5-point favorites) won a close one over the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-115. The Denver game finished 31.5 points under the projected point total of 207.5, while the Portland game finished 11 points over the projected point total of 222.
Portland dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 28.3 (above their season average of 26.4) and a turnover percentage of 7.8 (better than their season average of 11.7). For those same stats, Oklahoma City recorded marks of 15.8 and 13.9, respectively. The Nuggets, meanwhile, held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.7 (below the 22.2 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season) and had a turnover percentage of 5.8 (better than their season average of 11.3). Nikola Jokic played an enormous role in the victory for Denver with 21 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists to notch his 13th triple-double this season. Portland, meanwhile, rallied around Damian Lillard, who contributed 50 points, seven rebounds and six assists.
A little over half of the Trail Blazers’ games have finished over the projected point total. Portland heads into the game with records of 57-30 straight up (SU) and 48-39 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Nuggets’ 89 games, 50 have finished under the projected point total. Further, Denver is 58-31 SU and 45-44 ATS.
Portland may have a difficult time creating turnovers. Denver ranks sixth in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.6 percent), while Portland forces the second-fewest turnovers (11.9 percent).
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Trail Blazers, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Denver ranks second in assists per game (27.3) while Portland ranks 25th (22.7).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (51.9) while the Trail Blazers rank 15th (49.1).
- Portland ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (29.9) while Denver ranks 10th (31.0).
- Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while Portland ranks ninth (15.2).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 20th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
- The Trail Blazers rank third in rebounds per game (47.8) while the Nuggets rank 10th (46.2).
- Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.1) while Portland ranks 19th (14.1).
- Denver is 27-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Portland is 17-2.
- The Nuggets are 53-22 when they reach 100 points, while the Trail Blazers are 55-24.
- Portland is 22-21 ATS on the road, while Denver is 27-18 ATS at home.
- The Trail Blazers have 22 unders, 20 overs and 1 push in 43 road games.
- Of the Nuggets’ 45 home games, they have 25 unders and 20 overs.
Bettings Trends:
- The Trail Blazers are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Portland has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Denver has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.8, up from 4.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 105.2 points per game (5.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.4 points per game (3.0 below their season average).
