The Denver Nuggets (45-35), 4-point favorites, welcome the Portland Trail Blazers (48-32) to Pepsi Center to get their Western Conference schedules underway. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218.5 points and it is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, April 9, 2018.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
In their last game, the Nuggets had no trouble getting past the Los Angeles Clippers, 134-115, while the Trail Blazers were beaten by the San Antonio Spurs, 116-105.
The Nuggets had an absurd effective field goal percentage of 0.694 (above their season average of 0.536) and had a turnover percentage of 6.9 (better than their season average of 13.1). Portland, meanwhile, held San Antonio to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.1 (below their season average of 23.8). Nikola Jokic played a huge role in the victory for Denver with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists to register his eighth triple-double of the season. Jusuf Nurkic had a good game for Portland, recording 12 points and 12 rebounds.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the leagues top rebounding teams go head-to-head. The Nuggets are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.8 percent. Meanwhile, Portland ranks fifth in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.2 percent.
Of the Trail Blazers 80 games, 44 have finished under the total. Portland comes into the game with records of 48-32 straight up (SU) and 44-29-7 against the spread (ATS).
In opposition of Portland, a little over half of Nuggets games have finished over the projected point total. Additionally, Denver is 45-35 SU and 36-41-3 ATS.
The Trail Blazers Nurkic has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 14.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Jokic has averaged 26.6 points, 13.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks during that same time frame for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets lead the season series two games to one. The two teams combined for 205 points in their most recent game, which was under the projected point total of 211.5. Denver won 104-101, covering as a 3-point favorite. Denver did a great job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (26-33; 78.8 percent). Portland, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (10.2 vs. 13.3). Murray scored a game-high 38 points.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (25.2) while Portland ranks last (19.6).
- The Nuggets rank eighth in fast break points per game (13.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 28th (8.2).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Portland ranks 13th (42.7).
- Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while Portland ranks ninth (11.5).
- The Trail Blazers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Nuggets rank 28th (18.7).
- The Trail Blazers rank seventh in blocks per game (5.2) while the Nuggets rank 15th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
- Portland ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.0) while Denver ranks 26th (47.3).
- In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Denver is 14-2 and Portland is 25-6.
- The Trail Blazers are 43-18 when they score above 100 points, while the Nuggets are 39-25.
- Portland is 22-15-3 ATS on the road, while Denver is 19-20-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 20 of the Nuggets 40 home games, while 23 of the Trail Blazers 40 road games have gone under.
Betting Trends:
- In their last five games, Portland and Denver have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Trail Blazers are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
- The Trail Blazers average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.0, down from 2.6 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 119.0 points per game (8.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.0 points per game (4.2 above their season average).
