The Atlanta Braves will go for their fourth consecutive win as they play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates at SunTrust Park. This NL matchup begins at 7:20 p.m. ET and you can watch the game on ATPT and FSSE.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Vegas is listing Atlanta (-155) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+145). If you think the game’s total will go under 9.5 runs, Vegas is currently offering even money odds (+100). Taking the over will give you -120 odds. Runline odds stand at -150 for picking the Pirates +1.5 runs and +130 for the Braves -1.5 runs.
The Pirates are 30-34 SU and are 32-31 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 2.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having lost 4.7 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 36-29 SU and 31-33 ATS. They’ve gained 1.6 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 0.5 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.
Braves games have had an over/under record of 33-26-5 thus far in 2019. Pirates games have gone over 36 times, gone under 25 times and pushed on two occasions.
The right-handed Joe Musgrove is projected to start for Pittsburgh. Musgrove is 4-6 with a 4.44 ERA and 57 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA against Atlanta this year.
The Braves are turning to righty Kevin Gausman (2-5, 6.15 ERA), who’s got 60 punchouts and 23 walks, along with a 1.47 WHIP. Gausman is 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 12.60 ERA in one start against Pittsburgh this year.
Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.7 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.24, a WHIP of 1.29 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.6 K/9.
Atlanta’s offense has put up 5.0 runs per contest, including 5.5 per game over its last 10 games and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .226/.318/.407 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Braves’ batters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr.. Freeman is hitting .312/.401/.592 with 17 home runs, 41 RBIs and 46 runs scored, while Acuna Jr. is batting .279 with 14 homers, 41 RBIs, 40 runs and eight stolen bases.
For the visitors, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 4.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.12 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.39, along with a K/9 of 9.68.
Pirates hitters have slashed .256/.315/.407 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game this year, including 5.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
First baseman Josh Bell and outfielder Starling Marte have led Pittsburgh’s offense. Bell is slashing .325/.388/.667 with 18 home runs, 57 RBIs and 46 runs scored. Marte is hitting .283/.324/.448 with seven homers, 26 RBIs, 35 runs and 11 stolen bases.
The Pirates have gained 4.7 units and are 24-23 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 25 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have lost 3.5 units and are 23-25 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 21 of those games, compared to 23 which went under the total.
Pirates at Braves Free MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The under has cashed in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
- The Pirates have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.
- The Pirates have an OPS of .721 this season and an OPS of .736 against right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .770 overall and .752 against righties.
- Atlanta has posted 22.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.0 over its last five.
