The Miami Heat (33-30) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they clash with the Phoenix Suns (19-46). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 216.5 points with Miami opening as a 9.5-point favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 5, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun.
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Suns lost a tough one against the Atlanta Hawks in their last matchup, 113-112. Phoenix’s Elfrid Payton had a big game, racking up 11 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds on his way to his first triple-double this season. Atlanta held the Suns to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.1 (below their season average of 23.4). Phoenix, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (12.4 vs. 13.9).
The last time the Heat played, they topped the Detroit Pistons, 105-96. With 17 points on 7-for-13 shooting, Josh Richardson led Miami in scoring. Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.232 (above their season average of 0.175) and a turnover percentage of 12.1 (better than their season average of 13.1). Detroit was 0.169 and 15.5, respectively, for those same stats.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Miami figures to have a noteworthy advantage. The Heat defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.508), while the Phoenix offense is ranked 30th in effective field goal percentage (0.495). It will also be a matchup of opposite tempos as the fast-paced Suns rank third in possessions per game, while the more methodical Heat rank 28th.
Of Phoenix’s 64 games with betting action, 32 have finished under the projected point total, while 34 of Miami’s 63 games have finished under the O/U total. The Heat come into this game with much better straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 33-30 SU and 32-29-2 ATS, while the Suns are 19-46 SU and 29-33-2 ATS.
Devin Booker has been on fire recently for Phoenix, averaging 34.0 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists over the last five games.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 241 points, well over the projected point total of 216.5. The Heat won 126-115, covering as 6-point favorites. The Heat dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 28.2 and an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.346. For those same stats, the Suns were 12.5 and 0.261, respectively. Goran Dragic had a standout performance in the victory, producing 29 points and nine rebounds.
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat ATS Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank ninth in rebounds allowed per game (42.2) while the Suns rank 28th (45.6).
- Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.8) while Phoenix ranks 12th (28.6).
- Miami ranks 12th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while Phoenix ranks 27th (8.5).
- Miami ranks 21st in points off turnovers per game (15.6) while Phoenix ranks 25th (15.0).
- On the road, Phoenix is 17-13-1 ATS with 16 unders and 15 overs.
- At home, Miami is 10-18-2 ATS with 16 unders, 13 overs and 1 push.
- Phoenix is 6-2 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 20-6.
- The Suns are 15-28 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 23-14.
- The Heat rank 13th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.4) while the Suns rank 26th (47.4).
- Phoenix ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 28th (8.0).
- The Heat rank seventh in blocks per game (5.2) while the Suns rank 28th in blocks allowed per game (5.7).
- The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.4) while the Suns rank 11th (22.7).
- Phoenix ranks seventh in second chance points per game (13.4) while Miami ranks 26th (10.7).
Betting Trends:
- Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 3.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.6 points.
- During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (6.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.0 points per game (0.8 above their season average).
