The NBA’s top scoring defense will be at home in Pepsi Center, when the Denver Nuggets (11-3) take on the Phoenix Suns (8-7). Action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 24, 2019, and can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
In the Suns’ last outing, they edged the Minnesota Timberwolves, 100-98, as 3.5-point underdogs. The Nuggets, meanwhile, defeated the Boston Celtics,96-92, but failed to cover as 5-point favorites. The Phoenix game finished 36.5 points under the projected point total of 234.5, while the Denver game finished 19 points under the projected point total of 207.
Phoenix played a nearly flawless game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.250 (above their season average of 0.234) and a turnover percentage of 6.1 (better than their season average of 13.2). Minnesota was 0.110 and 12.4, respectively, for those same stats. The Nuggets, on the other hand, held the Celtics to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.9 (below their season average of 21.5) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.451 (below their season average of 0.512). Nikola Jokic played an enormous role in the victory for Denver with 18 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists to register his second triple-double of the year. Phoenix, meanwhile, was led by Devin Booker, who finished with 35 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists.
In their first matchup this season, Jokic led the Nuggets to a 108-107 win. He registered a triple-double with 23 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists. Denver was unable to cover as a 12-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 215 points, which was just under the projected point total of 218. The Nuggets’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Suns. Denver had a rate of 11.5, while Phoenix posted a mark of 14.5.
Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Suns are involved, as eight of their 14 games have finished over the projected point total. Phoenix holds records of 8-7 straight up (SU) and 9-5 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Phoenix, games including the Nuggets have typically finished under the O/U total (78.6 percent). Denver has an excellent 11-3 SU record, but they have trouble covering the spread (5-7-2 ATS).
The Suns’ Kelly Oubre Jr. has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 18 points,6.2 rebounds,1.6 steals per game. Meanwhile, Paul Millsap has averaged 17 points,6.8 rebounds,1.6 steals during that same time frame for the Nuggets.
Ball security could play a significant role in this contest. Denver commits the fourth-fewest miscues in the league (turnover percentage of 12.8 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Phoenix forces the third-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.3 percent).
Suns at Nuggets Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank 17th in points in the paint per game (47.4) while the Suns rank 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (50.0).
- Denver ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.2) while Phoenix ranks 27th (3.9).
- The Suns rank second in points off turnovers per game (20.9) while the Nuggets rank 15th (17.7).
- Denver ranks 14th in second chance points per game (12.9) while Phoenix ranks 26th (10.5).
- Denver ranks ninth in rebounds per game (46.6) while Phoenix ranks 15th in rebounds allowed per game (45.5).
- The Suns rank 11th in three pointers attempted per game (35.0) while the Nuggets rank 25th (29.6).
- The Suns average 27.5 assists per game, which ranks second in the league. The Nuggets rank 13th in assists allowed per game (23.9).
- Denver ranks 11th in steals per game (8.0) while Phoenix ranks 14th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
- Phoenix averages 15.0 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Denver ranks 21st in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
- In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Phoenix is 2-2 and Denver is 8-0.
- The Nuggets are 9-3 when they score over 100 points, while the Suns are 8-5.
- Phoenix is 3-1 ATS on the road, while Denver is 2-5-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 3 of the Suns’ 4 road games, while 7 of the Nuggets’ 8 home games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Phoenix has 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.0, up from 4.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 110.0 points per game (4.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 110.6 points per game (0.1 above their season average).
