The Phoenix Suns (11-50) and the Miami Heat (26-32) square off at AmericanAirlines Arena. The Suns are 8.5-point underdogs and will try to put an end to their 17-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, February 25, 2019.
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat Betting Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last outing. The Suns (3-point underdogs) were defeated by the Atlanta Hawks, 120-112, while the Heat (3.5-point favorites) fell to the Detroit Pistons, 119-96. The Phoenix game went 2.5 points under the projected point total of 234.5, while the Miami game went 5.5 points over the projected point total of 209.5.
Phoenix held Atlanta to an effective field goal percentage of 0.478 (below the 0.547 mark opponents have averaged against Phoenix this season) while Miami had a better turnover percentage (12.2 vs. 13.3). Miami’s Hassan Whiteside had a good game, finishing with 13 points and 15 rebounds. Phoenix, meanwhile, was led by Tyler Johnson, who recorded 29 points and five rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Bam Adebayo led the Heat to a 115-98 win. He notched a double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds. Miami covered as an 8.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 213 points, which was just over the projected point total of 210.5. The Heat’s 11.3 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Suns, who had a rate of 18.9.
Of the Suns’ 61 games, 34 have finished under the O/U total. Phoenix comes into the game with records of 11-50 straight up (SU) and 25-36 against the spread (ATS).
Contrary to Phoenix, games involving the Heat have gone over the projected point total 50.0 percent of the time. Additionally, Miami is 26-32 SU and 29-28-1 ATS.
Miami could dominate on defense as they face off against one of the league’s worst offenses. The Heat currently rank fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.510), while Phoenix is 24th in effective field goal percentage (0.511).
Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat average 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Suns rank 17th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
- Miami ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while Phoenix ranks 29th (52.5).
- The Heat rank ninth in rebounds per game (46.3) while the Suns rank last (40.1).
- Phoenix ranks sixth in points off turnovers (18.1 per game) while Miami ranks 26th in points off turnovers allowed (18.1 per game).
- Phoenix ranks second in steals per game (9.0) while Miami ranks 17th (7.5).
- The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (22.7) while the Suns rank 26th (26.0).
- The Suns rank 10th in fast break points per game (14.8) while the Heat rank 28th (9.8).
- Phoenix ranks fifth in three pointers allowed per game (29.5) while Miami ranks 11th (31.1).
- Miami averages 14.2 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Phoenix ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (15.1).
- Phoenix is 4-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Miami is 15-3.
- The Suns are 10-32 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 24-16.
- Phoenix is 12-20 ATS on the road, while Miami is 10-17-1 ATS at home.
- In 32 road games, the Suns have 17 unders and 15 overs.
- Of the Heat’s 28 home games, they have 15 overs and 13 unders.
Bettings Trends:
- The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Miami has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Phoenix has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.0 points per game (1.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (3.9 above their season average).
- The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 14.2, up from 10.2 for the season.
