Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Free Pick

Posts AdminArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will head west to face the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park. This NL showdown will get going at 10:10 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Philadelphia will be televising the game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Odds

Vegas is listing Philadelphia (-120) as the favorite over San Diego (+110). The total stands at 7.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -105 or the under for -115. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at +125 for the Phillies -1.5 runs and -145 for the Padres +1.5.

The Padres are 30-29 straight up (SU) and 26-32 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.7 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 10.9 units ATS. San Diego has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in three of those seven. The Phillies are 33-26 SU and have gone 30-28 against the spread. Overall, the team’s accumulated 4.2 units for moneyline bettors and 0.0 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

San Diego games have an over/under record of 26-28-4 so far in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 26-30-2.

Aaron Nola will get the nod for Philadelphia. The right-handed Nola (6-0, 4.18 ERA) has recorded 74 strikeouts in 64.2 innings so far. He has yet to face the Padres this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and five strikeouts over six innings).

The Padres are countering with Eric Lauer (4-4, 4.45 ERA). Lauer has 49 strikeouts and 14 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.26. Lauer did not re a start against the Phillies in 2018.

As a unit, San Diego’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have an ERA of 4.05, a WHIP of 1.17 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 4.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 10.3 K/9.

San Diego’s offense has produced 3.9 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .194/.275/.344 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado have paced the Padres’ hitters this year. Hosmer is hitting .291/.340/.453 with nine home runs, 34 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Machado’s line sits at .251/.339/.412 with nine homers, 27 RBIs and 27 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.18 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.18, along with a K/9 of 9.25.

The Phillies offense has slashed .243/.326/.412 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura continue to lead Philadelphia’s hitters. Hernandez is slashing .290/.347/.463 with six home runs, 28 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Segura is slashing .291/.341/.447 with five homers, 23 RBIs and 37 runs scored.

The Phillies have lost 4.8 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in eight of those games, compared to seven that’ve hit the under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Padres have netted 1.8 units and are 19-28 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 22 of those games, compared to 22 that went under.

Phillies vs. Padres Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in four of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • The Phillies have an OPS of .738 this season and an OPS of .764 against left-handed pitchers. The Padres’ OPS stands at .705 overall and .714 against lefties.
  • The Padres have dropped three of their last four games SU.
  • San Diego has posted 22.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 15.6 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit 18 over their last 10.