The Philadelphia Phillies will head south to face their division rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. The matchup will begin at 7:20 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to Fox Sports Sun.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Philadelphia (+125) as the underdog to Atlanta (-135). If you think the game’s total will go under 9.5 runs, bookmakers are currently offering -105 odds. Picking the over will give you -115 odds. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at -170 for the Phillies +1.5 runs and +150 for the Braves -1.5.
The Braves are 40-29 straight up (SU) and 33-35 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 5.5 units for moneyline bettors and 0.4 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, have gone 38-30 SU this year and are 35-33 against the spread. In total, the club has accumulated 3.2 units for moneyline bettors and 1.6 units ATS.
Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 37-26-5 so far in 2019. The Phillies have an over/under record of 31-35-2.
Right-hander Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for Philadelphia. Pivetta is 4-1 with a 4.93 ERA and 37 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 7.71 ERA against Atlanta this year.
The Braves are going with lefty Max Fried (7-3, 3.75 ERA), who has 66 punchouts and 19 walks to his name, along with a WHIP of 1.29. Fried is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA against Philadelphia this year.
Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.8 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.32, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 18 games against divisional opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.57 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.23.
The Atlanta hitters have produced 5.2 runs per contest, including 4.8 per game against divisional foes and 8.2 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .301/.400/.591 over its last five matchups and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.
The Braves’ offense has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr.. Freeman is hitting .311/.401/.592 with 18 home runs, 46 RBIs and 49 runs scored, and Acuna Jr.’s line sits at .285/.365/.493 with 15 homers, 45 RBIs, 42 runs and nine stolen bases.
In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.28 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.13 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.24, along with a WHIP of 1.34.
The Phillies offense has slashed .244/.324/.418 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Shortstop Jean Segura and first baseman Rhys Hoskins continue to lead Philadelphia’s hitters. Segura is hitting .284/.331/.453 with six home runs, 27 RBIs and 41 runs scored, while Hoskins is slashing .273/.392/.517 with 14 homers, 47 RBIs and 36 runs scored.
The Phillies have lost 7.3 units and are 8-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in nine of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 0.5 units and are 25-27 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 25 of those games, compared to 23 that went under the total.
Phillies vs. Braves Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The over has hit in three of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- The Phillies have a team OPS of .742 this season, including an OPS of .768 against left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .788 overall and .804 against southpaws.
- Philadelphia has recorded 20 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20 over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 20 over their last 10.
