Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are prepared to battle against the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field. This NL showdown will get underway at 9:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Arizona is in line to broadcast the game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Philadelphia (+125) is entering this one as the underdog against Arizona (-135) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 9.5 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). Runline odds stand at -170 for taking the Phillies +1.5 runs and +150 for the Diamondbacks -1.5 runs.

The Diamondbacks are 57-57 straight up (SU) and 64-50 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.7 units for moneyline bettors and 9.2 units ATS. Arizona has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Phillies are 59-54 SU and have gone 52-61 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 3.8 units for moneyline bettors and 10.3 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Diamondbacks games have an over/under record of 56-50-8 in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 54-55-4.

Jason Vargas is getting the nod for Philadelphia. The left-handed Vargas is 6-5 with a 3.93 ERA and 86 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Diamondbacks this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (0-1, 5.40 ERA and five strikeouts across five innings).

The Diamondbacks are handing the ball to Zac Gallen (1-3, 2.72 ERA), who has 43 strikeouts and 18 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.18. Gallen did not record any MLB pitching stats last season.

Arizona’s pitching staff has yielded 4.6 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have a 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.52 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.7 K/9.

The Arizona hitters are putting up 5.2 runs per contest, including 6.1 per game over its last 10 games and 7.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .280/.382/.518 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Diamondbacks’ hitters have been led by Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Marte is slashing .317/.377/.574 with 24 home runs, 66 RBIs and 77 runs scored, and Escobar is batting .282 with 25 homers, 92 RBIs and 71 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.47 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.26 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.81, along with a K/9 of 9.28.

Phillies hitters have slashed .247/.325/.421 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 5.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Philadelphia’s offense has been powered by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .282/.328/.405 with eight home runs, 49 RBIs and 50 runs scored, while Segura is hitting .287/.335/.439 with 11 homers, 47 RBIs and 62 runs scored.

The Diamondbacks have gained 4.2 units and are 18-15 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 20 of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in four of Philadelphia’s last seven outings.
  • Both teams have launched 16 home runs over their last 10 outings.
  • Philadelphia has posted 26.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.6 over its last five.
  • The Diamondbacks have won three of their last four games SU.