The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies at Miller Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Philadelphia will be televising this NL matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Milwaukee (-120) is favored against Philadelphia (+110) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 9 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). You can also bet on the game’s runline with the odds standing at Phillies +1.5 runs (-190) and Brewers -1.5 runs (+165).
The Phillies have gone 30-21 SU this year and are 26-24 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 3.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.4 units ATS. Philadelphia’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 29-23 SU and 26-25 ATS. The team’s gained 6.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 1.9 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Brewers games have had an over/under record of 20-30-1 thus far in 2019. The Phillies have an over/under record of 23-26-1.
Jake Arrieta will get the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Arrieta is 4-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 51 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA against Milwaukee this year.
The Brewers are planning to start righty Jhoulys Chacin (3-5, 4.65 ERA), who has 36 punchouts and 22 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.31. Chacin hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 5.68 ERA and seven strikeouts across 6.1 innings).
As a unit, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has allowed 4.7 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.38, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 4.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 10.0 K/9.
The Milwaukee offense is putting up 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.5 per game over its last 10 games and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .251/.321/.434 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Brewers’ hitters have been led by outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Cain is slashing .266/.325/.401 with four home runs, 19 RBIs, 33 runs and five stolen bases, while Yelich is batting .325 with 20 homers, 42 RBIs, 41 runs and nine steals.
For the visitors, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.20 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.08 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.81, along with a K/9 of 9.15.
Phillies hitters have slashed .247/.332/.413 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .304/.366/.462 with four home runs, 21 RBIs and 23 runs scored. Segura (.322/.366/.503) has produced five homers, 22 RBIs and 34 runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 8.7 units and are 20-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 5.0 units and are 17-19 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under.
Phillies at Brewers Free MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The over has hit in four of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- The Phillies have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 16 over their last 10.
- The Phillies have an OPS of .745 this season and an OPS of .735 against right-handed pitchers. The Brewers’ OPS stands at .767 overall and .761 versus righties.
- Philadelphia has recorded 21.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.6 over its last five.
