The Philadelphia Phillies are heading south to play their divisional foe Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Sun will be televising the matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds
Vegas is listing Miami (+130) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-140). If you think this game’s total will go under 8.5 runs, bookmakers are currently offering -105 odds. Picking the over will return -115 odds. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds standing at Phillies -1.5 runs (+105) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-125).
The Marlins are just 30-49 straight up (SU) and 38-40 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 0.3 units for moneyline bettors while earning 10.8 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Phillies have gone 43-38 SU this year and are 38-42 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 3.9 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 4.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Marlins games have an over/under record of 35-39-4 so far in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 38-40-2.
Vince Velasquez will get the start for Philadelphia. The right-handed Velasquez (2-4, 4.40 ERA) has recorded 54 strikeouts in 47 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with nine strikeouts and a 1.64 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins are countering with Elieser Hernandez (0-2, 4.34 ERA). Hernandez has 19 strikeouts and four walks, along with a 1.18 WHIP. Hernandez is 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.
As a unit, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 4.5 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 37 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.84 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.05.
Miami’s offense has put up 3.5 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .249/.306/.385 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ hitters have been led by first baseman Miguel Rojas and third baseman Brian Anderson. Rojas is slashing .286/.350/.357 with 76 hits, 23 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .247/.331/.403 with 10 homers, 34 RBIs and 28 runs.
In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 4.46 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.08 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.61, along with a K/9 of 9.04.
Phillies hitters have slashed .243/.325/.422 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Philadelphia’s offense has been fueled by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura, who have combined to belt 17 home runs. Hernandez is slashing .284/.340/.435 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 38 runs scored, while Segura (.274/.319/.459) has produced 10 homers, 38 RBIs and 47 runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 2.4 units and are 28-30 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 26 of those games, as opposed to 30 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 1.3 units and are 27-31 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 32 that’ve gone under.
Phillies at Marlins Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The under has cashed in three of Miami’s last seven games.
- The Phillies have a team OPS of .747 this season and an OPS of .732 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .648 overall and .648 versus righties.
- Miami has posted 19.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.2 over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games, including 12 over their last five.
