Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction 01/11/20

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The Dallas Mavericks (23-15) will be 2-point favorites at home in the American Airlines Center when they go head-to-head against the Philadelphia 76ers (25-14). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 223.5 points and action begins at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 11, 2020.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds

The 76ers beat the Boston Celtics in their last outing, 109-98, easily covering as 1-point favorites. The Mavericks, meanwhile, were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers, 129-114, and failed to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The Philadelphia game went 12 points under the projected point total of 219, while the Dallas game finished 19.5 points over the projected point total of 223.5.

Philadelphia played a perfect game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 30.2 (above their season average of 23.8) and a free throw rate of 0.136 (matching their season average). Boston put up marks of 18.6 and 0.091, respectively, for those same stats. Dallas, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.5 (above their season average of 24.1). Luka Doncic played a pivotal role for Dallas with 25 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Josh Richardson had a good outing for Philadelphia, recording 29 points and seven assists.

In their first matchup this season, Kristaps Porzingis led the Mavericks to a 117-98 win. He recorded a double-double with 22 points and 18 rebounds. Dallas covered as a 9-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 215 points, which was just over the projected point total of 212. Dallas’ free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Philadelphia. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.205, while the 76ers posted a mark of 0.133.

Of the 76ers’ 39 games, 20 have finished over the total. Philadelphia heads into the game with records of 25-14 straight up (SU) and 18-18-3 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Mavericks’ 37 games with betting action, 23 have finished over the total. Moreover, Dallas owns records of 23-15 SU and 21-16 ATS.

Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the NBA’s top rebounding teams clash. The Mavericks rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.3 percent), while Philadelphia ranks first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.4 percent).

76ers at Mavericks ATS Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The 76ers rank 20th in points off turnovers per game (16.3) while the Mavericks rank 26th (15.6).
  • Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.3) while Philadelphia ranks 25th (29.9).
  • The 76ers rank 12th in fast break points per game (13.9) while the Mavericks rank 27th in fast break points allowed per game (16.3).
  • Philadelphia ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.6) while Dallas ranks 14th (45.5).
  • Philadelphia ranks 13th in points in the paint per game (48.2) while Dallas ranks 20th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.9).
  • The 76ers rank sixth in steals per game (8.2) while the Mavericks rank 25th (6.5).
  • The 76ers rank third in assists per game (26.6) while the Mavericks rank 13th (24.4).
  • Dallas leads the league with 3.9 blocks allowed per game while Philadelphia is second with 3.9 blocks allowed per game.
  • Dallas ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.6) while Philadelphia ranks 22nd (12.5).
  • When allowing under 100 points, Philadelphia is 11-1 and Dallas is 5-0.
  • The Mavericks are 23-13 when they reach 100 points, while the 76ers are 22-7.
  • Dallas is 8-12 ATS at home, while Philadelphia is 8-10-1 ATS on the road.
  • Of the 76ers’ 19 road games, they have 10 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.
  • The Mavericks have 12 overs and 8 unders in 20 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Philadelphia and Dallas are both 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The 76ers have been outscored by an average of 2.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Philadelphia has defeated opponents by an average of 4.0 points.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 116.2 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 116.0 points per game (6.3 above their season average).