Expect a defensive battle when the No. 6 Purdue Boilermakers (23-5, 12-3 Big 10) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (19-9, 9-6 Big 10) face off at Mackey Arena. Purdue is an 8-point favorite on the opening line, while the games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 143 points. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 18, 2018.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers Odds Preview
In the Nittany Lions last contest, they dismantled the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes, 79-56. Tony Carr was the games leading scorer with 30 points on 9-for-15 shooting. Penn State dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.333 (above their season average of 0.215) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.3 (matching their season average). Ohio State recorded marks of 0.222 and 22.2, respectively, for those same stats.
The Boilermakers are hoping for a better outcome after their 57-53 loss to the Wisconsin Badgers in their last contest. With 12 points and 11 rebounds, Isaac Haas had a good game for Purdue. Wisconsin forced the Boilermakers into a turnover percentage of 19.0 (above their season average of 13.9). Purdue, meanwhile, held the Badgers to an effective field goal percentage of 0.431 (below their season average of 0.514).
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Purdue currently ranks ninth in offensive efficiency and Penn State is 19th in defensive efficiency.
Both of these teams have a tendency to finish under the projected point total. Penn State games have finished under 58.3 percent of the time, while 55.6 percent of games including Purdue have gone under. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Boilermakers have a significant advantage. They are 23-5 SU and 15-12 ATS, while the Nittany Lions are 19-9 SU and 13-10-1 ATS.
This is the first time these teams will clash this year. The Boilermakers won both contests played against each other last season. In the last game, Purdue won 74-70. One of Purdue’s largest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 16-19 (84.2 percent), while the Nittany Lions were 10-14 (71.4 percent).
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction
Basketball Tip: SU Winner – Purdue, ATS Winner – Penn State, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Boilermakers rank 19th in blocks per game (5.3) while the Nittany Lions rank 106th in blocks allowed per game (3.3).
- On the road, Penn State is 5-5-1 ATS with 6 overs and 5 unders.
- At home, Purdue is 8-6 ATS with 8 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
- Purdue ranks 116th in three pointers attempted per game (22.9) while Penn State ranks 243rd (19.1).
- The Nittany Lions rank 30th in steals per game (7.7) while the Boilermakers rank 141st (6.0).
- Purdue ranks 11th in assists per game (17.4) while Penn State ranks 114th (14.3).
Betting Trends:
- Purdue is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Penn State is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Boilermakers average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 17.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nittany Lions have scored an average of 75.4 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 62.4 points per game (3.6 below their season average).
