Big 10 foes will clash when the Illinois Fighting Illini (12-13, 2-10 Big 10) go head-to-head with the Penn State Nittany Lions (17-9, 7-6 Big 10) at State Farm Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 146.5 points with Penn State opening as a 2.5-point favorite. Action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 11, 2018.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
The last time the Nittany Lions played, they beat the Maryland Terrapins, 74-70. Lamar Stevens was the games high scorer with 25 points on 10-for-12 shooting. The Nittany Lions held the Terrapins to an offensive rebounding percentage of 18.2 (below their season average of 32.7) and had a turnover percentage of 14.3 (better than their season average of 15.8).
The Fighting Illini are hoping for a better outcome after their 78-69 loss to the Wisconsin Badgers in their last matchup. Trent Frazier was the games high scorer with 32 points on 10-for-20 shooting. Wisconsin had an effective field goal percentage of 0.617 (above their season average of 0.509). Illinois, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (37.8 vs. 30.4).
Illinois might struggle to score as they go head-to-head against one of the nations best defenses. Penn State ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, while the Fighting Illini rank 156th in offensive efficiency.
Of Penn State’s 22 games with betting action, 12 have finished under the O/U total, while 12 of Illinois 21 games have finished under the O/U total. The Nittany Lions have the significant advantage straight up (SU) (17-9 vs. 12-13) and a slight edge against the spread (ATS) (11-10-1 vs. 10-11).
Frazier has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Illinois, averaging 14.4 points and 3.8 assists per game.
This is the first time these teams will clash this year. The Nittany Lions won both matchups played against each other last season. In the most recent game, Penn State won 83-70. The Nittany Lions played a perfect game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.353 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.3. The Fighting Illini were 0.280 and 21.4, respectively, for those same stats.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini Odds Prediction
Free Pick: SU Winner – Penn State, ATS Winner – Penn State, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nittany Lions rank 46th in assists allowed per game (11.5) while the Fighting Illini rank 68th (12.1).
- Illinois is 5-6 ATS at home, while Penn State is 4-5-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 6 of the Fighting Illini’s 11 home games, while 6 of the Nittany Lions 10 road games have gone over.
- Penn State ranks 12th in blocks per game (5.5) while Illinois ranks 200th (2.2).
- The Nittany Lions average 7.7 steals per game, which ranks 28th in the nation. The Fighting Illini rank 160th in steals allowed per game (6.7).
- Illinois ranks 146th in three pointers attempted per game (22.0) while Penn State ranks 248th (18.8).
Betting Trends:
- Illinois is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Penn State is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Fighting Illini’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.6, down from 4.5 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nittany Lions have scored an average of 73.2 points per game (3.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.2 points per game (1.7 below their season average).
