Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction

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The Orlando Magic (11-12), 2-point underdogs, will be at AmericanAirlines Arena to go head-to-head against the Miami Heat (9-13) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 207.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 4, 2018.

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Heat (4-point underdogs) defeated the Utah Jazz 102-100, while the Magic (4-point favorite) beat the Phoenix Suns 99-85. The Miami game finished 6.5 points under the projected point total of 208.5, while the Orlando game went 31.5 points under the projected point total of 215.5.

Orlando dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.159 (below their season average of 0.159) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.524 (above their season average of 0.516). For those same stats, Phoenix was 0.119 and 0.446, respectively. Meanwhile, Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.187 (matching their season average) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.9 (below their season average of 26.1). For those same stats, Utah had marks of 0.124 and 21.7, respectively. Hassan Whiteside fueled Miami with 23 points and 20 rebounds. Orlando was led by Nikola Vucevic, who recorded 25 points and 15 rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Aaron Gordon led the Magic to a 104-101 win. He recorded a double-double with 26 points and 16 rebounds. Orlando covered as a 2.5-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 205 points, which was just under the projected point total of 207.5. The Magic’s 10.0 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Heat, who had a rate of 13.0.

Games featuring the Magic have typically gone under the O/U total (60.9 percent). Orlando heads into the game with records of 11-12 straight up (SU) and 14-8-1 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Orlando, games including the Heat have a tendency to finish over the total (59.1 percent). Additionally, Miami is 9-13 SU and 10-12 ATS.

The Magic’s Terrence Ross has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 15 points,1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Dwyane Wade has averaged 17 points,3.8 assists during that same time frame for the Heat.

Miami appears to have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat currently rank seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.506), while Orlando is 20th in effective field goal percentage (0.516).

Magic at Heat Free Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat average 33.27272727272727 three pointers per game, which ranks 9 in the NBA. The Magic rank 11 in three pointers allowed per game (30.652173913043477).
  • Orlando ranks sixth in assists per game (26.2) while Miami ranks 25th (21.9).
  • The Heat average 47.6 rebounds per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Magic rank 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.3).
  • Orlando ranks 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.0) while Miami ranks 28th (16.3).
  • Miami ranks 17 in points in the paint per game (46.54545454545455) while Orlando ranks 26 (43.73913043478261).
  • The Magic rank 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.9) while the Heat rank 28th (19.3).
  • The Magic rank 3 in steals allowed per game (6.695652173913044) while the Heat rank 13 (7.590909090909091).
  • Orlando ranks ninth in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while Miami ranks 25th (6.1).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Orlando and Miami are both 3-1.
  • The Heat are 8-10 when they score above 100 points, while the Magic are 9-5.
  • Miami is 5-8 ATS at home, while Orlando is 8-2-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 7 of the Heat’s 13 home games, while 6 of the Magic’s 11 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Orlando and Miami are both 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Magic have scored an average of 103.2 points per game (2.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (1.7 below their season average).
  • The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has lost by an average of 1.4 points.