Summit foes will clash when the Denver Pioneers (11-14, 5-6 Summit) take on the Omaha Mavericks (9-17, 4-6 Summit) at Magness Arena. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 148 points with Denver set as a 5.5-point favorite. Action begins at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 14, 2018.
Omaha Mavericks at Denver Pioneers ATS Preview
The Mavericks beat the Fort Wayne Mastodons in their last matchup, 90-85. With 16 points and seven rebounds, Zach Jackson put together a solid outing for Omaha. Omaha played a nearly flawless game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.444 (above their season average of 0.184) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.611 (above their season average of 0.529). For those same stats, Fort Wayne was 0.086 and 0.564, respectively.
In the Pioneers last matchup, they defeated the North Dakota State Bison, 66-63. With 26 points on 7-for-12 shooting, Joe Rosga was Denver’s leading scorer. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over North Dakota State. The Pioneers had a rate of 0.609 (above their season average of 0.536), while the Bison posted a mark of 0.423 (below their season average of 0.556).
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Denver should have a noteworthy edge. The elite Pioneers offense ranks 73rd in the NCAA in that metric at 0.539, while the Omaha defense is ranked 320th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.544). Moreover, the Mavericks rank 267th in offensive rebounding percentage (26.2 percent), while the Pioneers rank 31st in defensive rebounding percentage (75.5 percent).
Of Omaha’s 24 games with betting action, 13 have finished under the projected point total, while 11 of Denver’s 22 games have finished over the projected point total. The Pioneers have the superior straight up (SU) record (11-14 vs. 9-17), but the Mavericks have the superior against the spread (ATS) record (10-13-1 vs. 9-12-1).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 166 points, which was over the projected point total of 152.5. The Mavericks won 86-80, covering as 5-point favorites. One of Omaha’s largest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They had 29 free throw attempts, while Denver had just nine. Jackson was the games leading scorer with 26 points.
Omaha Mavericks at Denver Pioneers Free Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Denver, ATS Winner – Omaha, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Pioneers rank 48th in blocks allowed per game (2.8) while the Mavericks rank 164th (4.1).
- Omaha ranks 158th in steals per game (5.8) while Denver ranks 247th (4.0).
- Omaha is 6-9-1 ATS on the road, while Denver is 5-4 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 9 of the Mavericks 16 road games, while 5 of the Pioneers 9 home games have gone under.
- Denver ranks 15th in rebounds allowed per game (30.6) while Omaha ranks 206th (36.4).
- The Mavericks rank 115th in three pointers attempted per game (22.8) while the Pioneers rank 286th (16.9).
- Denver ranks 39th in assists allowed per game (11.4) while Omaha ranks 208th (14.8).
Betting Trends:
- Denver is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Omaha is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push.
- The Pioneers average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 1.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 70.0 points per game (7.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 78.2 points per game (4.9 below their season average).
