Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Free Prediction 04/07/19

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The Oklahoma City Thunder (46-33), 6-point favorites, will be at the Target Center to square off against the Minnesota Timberwolves (36-43) in a Northwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 230 points and it will air on ABC at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 7, 2019.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Timberwolves (4-point underdogs) defeated the Miami Heat 111-109, while the Thunder (5.5-point favorite) beat the Detroit Pistons 123-110. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Minnesota game went 1.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5, while the Oklahoma City game went 17 points over the projected point total of 216.

The Thunder, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.7, had a ridiculous mark of 42.9 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.535 (above their season average of 0.512). The Timberwolves, on the other hand, made 17 of their 21 free throws (81.0 percent) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.7 vs. 20.9). Dario Saric played a pivotal role for Minnesota with 19 points, seven rebounds and five assists. Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook led the way for Oklahoma City, putting up 19 points, 15 assists and eight rebounds.

The Timberwolves have won all three contests against the Thunder this year. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to score 251 points, which was over the projected point total of 236.5. Minnesota won 131-120, covering as a 2-point underdog. One of Minnesota’s largest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They made 35 trips to the line, while Oklahoma City went 31 times. Karl-Anthony Towns recorded a double-double with 41 points and 14 rebounds.

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Thunder games, with 40 unders compared to 37 overs. Oklahoma City holds records of 46-33 straight up (SU) and 40-39 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Oklahoma City, games featuring the Timberwolves have a slight tendency to go over the O/U total (54.4 percent). Additionally, Minnesota is 36-43 SU and 38-41 ATS.

Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play a significant role in this battle. Minnesota commits the third-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Oklahoma City forces the most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.3 percent). Furthermore, the Thunder could control the offensive glass in this meeting as they rank third in the league in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.9 percent. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, rank 27th at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 75.0 percent.

Thunder at Timberwolves Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Thunder rank first in points off turnovers per game (19.5) while the Timberwolves rank eighth (17.5).
  • Oklahoma City ranks second in second chance points per game (15.5) while Minnesota ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (14.8).
  • The Thunder average 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Timberwolves rank 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
  • Oklahoma City ranks third in rebounds per game (47.9) while Minnesota ranks 17th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (52.0) while Minnesota ranks 15th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.9).
  • The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Thunder rank 22nd (8.2).
  • The Thunder rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (32.3) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (28.6).
  • Oklahoma City ranks 19th in assists allowed per game (24.9) while Minnesota ranks 26th (26.2).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fifth in fast break points per game (18.0) while Minnesota ranks 20th (11.8).
  • In games where they allow under 100 points, Minnesota is 12-0 and Oklahoma City is 11-0.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Thunder are 42-26 and the Timberwolves are 35-37.
  • Oklahoma City is 20-19 ATS on the road, while Minnesota is 21-18 ATS at home.
  • The Thunder have 22 unders, 16 overs and 1 push in 39 road games.
  • The Timberwolves have 23 overs and 16 unders in 39 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Oklahoma City and Minnesota are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Thunder have 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games, while the Timberwolves have 3 overs and 2 unders
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 111.4 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.6 points per game (4.2 below their season average).
  • The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.8, up from 1.2 for the season.