Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction 02/28/20

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The league’s top scoring team will be 10.5-point favorites at home in Fiserv Forum, when the Milwaukee Bucks (50-8) square off with the Oklahoma City Thunder (37-22). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 229 points and it will air on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 28, 2020.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Bucks (1-point underdogs) defeated the Toronto Raptors 108-97, while the Thunder (11-point underdog) beat the Sacramento Kings 112-108. The Milwaukee game finished 27 points under the projected point total of 232, while the Oklahoma City game finished 2.5 points over the projected point total of 217.5.

Oklahoma City played a nearly flawless game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.250 (above their season average of 0.234) and a turnover percentage of 8.5 (better than their season average of 11.8). For those same stats, Sacramento was 0.154 and 13.4, respectively. The Bucks, meanwhile, made 30 of their 36 free throws (83.3 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (11.5 vs. 13.8). Giannis Antetokounmpo had a solid game for Milwaukee with 19 points, 19 rebounds and eight assists. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, was lifted by Danilo Gallinari, who put up 24 points and six rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to a 121-119 victory. He registered a double-double with 35 points and 16 rebounds. Milwaukee was unable to cover as a 9-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 240 points, which was well over the projected point total of 219.5. Making free throws was one of Milwaukee’s largest strengths. They were 16-18 (88.9 percent), while the Thunder were 12-17 (70.6 percent).

A little over half of the Thunder’s games have finished under the projected point total. Oklahoma City comes into the contest with records of 37-22 straight up (SU) and 37-20-1 against the spread (ATS).

Games featuring the Bucks have no tendency in regards to the projected point total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Moreover, Milwaukee owns records of 50-8 SU and 34-24 ATS.

This game should be a matchup of conflicting paces. Milwaukee has preferred to play fast (second in possessions per game), while Oklahoma City has been slower-paced (25th in possessions per game). Additionally, the Thunder, who rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (19.7 percent), could have a tough time getting put-back points against the Bucks, who rank first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.5 percent).

Thunder vs. Bucks ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Thunder rank second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while the Bucks rank 12th (7.3).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in fast break points per game (18.8) while Oklahoma City ranks last (9.1).
  • The Bucks rank fifth in assists per game (26.2) while the Thunder rank 25th (22.1).
  • Milwaukee ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (50.2) while Oklahoma City ranks 22nd (46.8).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in second chance points allowed per game (11.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 14th (12.7).
  • The Bucks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.4) while the Thunder rank 27th (29.4).
  • The Bucks rank second in blocks per game (6.3) while the Thunder rank 15th (4.9).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (51.8) while Oklahoma City ranks 22nd (43.1).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Milwaukee is 14-0 and Oklahoma City is 7-3.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Thunder are 36-14 and the Bucks are 50-8.
  • Oklahoma City is 21-6 ATS on the road, while Milwaukee is 17-12 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 15 of the Bucks’ 29 home games, while 15 of the Thunder’s 27 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Oklahoma City and Milwaukee are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Thunder have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Bucks have 3 overs and 2 unders
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 120.6 points per game (9.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.4 points per game (2.3 above their season average).
  • The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, down from 12.2 for the season.