The Denver Nuggets (41-18) and their outstanding offense will be 3.5-point favorites when they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-21) and their tremendous defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 237 points and it can be seen on TNT at 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 26, 2019.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
The last time the Nuggets were in action, they dismantled the Los Angeles Clippers, 123-96, comfortably covering as 9.5-point favorites. The Thunder, meanwhile, were topped by the Sacramento Kings, 119-116, and failed to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The Denver game went 16.5 points under the projected point total of 235.5, while the Oklahoma City game went 5 points under the projected point total of 240.
The Nuggets held the Clippers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.7 (below their season average of 21.8) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.588 (above their season average of 0.532). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, held Sacramento to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.0 (below their season average of 23.0). Paul Millsap played a pivotal role for Denver with 21 points and 16 rebounds. Russell Westbrook played well for Oklahoma City, recording 41 points and 10 rebounds.
The Nuggets have won both contests against the Thunder this season. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to score 207 points, which was under the projected point total of 217. Denver won 109-98, covering as a 2-point underdog. Denver had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.572 vs. 0.450). Oklahoma City, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (11.2 vs. 18.2). In the loss, Steven Adams had a double-double with 26 points and 14 rebounds.
Just over half of the Thunder’s games have finished over the total. Oklahoma City holds records of 38-21 straight up (SU) and 33-26 against the spread (ATS).
In opposition of Oklahoma City, Nuggets games have a slight tendency to go under the total (50.8 percent). Moreover, Denver owns records of 41-18 SU and 32-27 ATS.
This battle pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Denver currently ranks fourth in offensive efficiency and Oklahoma City is fifth in defensive efficiency. It will also be a tale of two tempos as the aggressively-paced Thunder rank first in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Nuggets rank 27th.
Thunder at Nuggets ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Thunder rank 12th in blocks per game (5.3) while the Nuggets rank 15th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while Oklahoma City ranks 23rd (45.6).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.4) while the Thunder rank 18th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.7).
- Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (10.2) while Denver ranks 13th (7.8).
- Oklahoma City ranks fourth in fast break points per game (18.8) while Denver ranks 14th (12.9).
- The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (27.7) while the Thunder rank 21st (23.4).
- The Nuggets average 15.6 second chance points per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Thunder rank 12th in second chance points allowed per game (13.0).
- Oklahoma City ranks 14th in three pointers attempted per game (31.3) while Denver ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (32.2).
- Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (20.7) while Denver ranks 17th (16.2).
- In games where they allow below 100 points, Oklahoma City is 7-0 and Denver is 19-1.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Thunder are 36-15 and the Nuggets are 39-13.
- Denver is 21-9 ATS at home, while Oklahoma City is 17-13 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 17 of the Nuggets’ 30 home games, while 17 of the Thunder’s 30 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Thunder are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Denver has 4 unders and 1 over, while Oklahoma City has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, up from 5.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 124.6 points per game (8.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 124.0 points per game (13.1 above their season average).
