Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction 12/30/18

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The Dallas Mavericks (16-18) will be at home in the American Airlines Center when they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (22-12). The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 30, 2018, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds

In their last matchup, the Thunder (4.5-point favorites) covered in a 118-102 win over the Phoenix Suns. The Mavericks fell to the New Orleans Pelicans, 114-112, but did cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The Oklahoma City game finished 6 points under the projected point total of 226, while the Dallas game went 2 points under the projected point total of 228.

Oklahoma City played a nearly flawless game. They had a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 28.9 (above their season average of 27.7) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.574 (above their season average of 0.510). For those same stats, Phoenix recorded marks of 15.6 and 0.483, respectively. Dallas, on the other hand, had a free throw rate of 0.295 (above their season average of 0.239). Luka Doncic put together a solid outing for Dallas with 34 points. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, received a boost from Russell Westbrook, who had 40 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists.

In their first matchup this season, Doncic led the Mavericks to a 111-96 victory. He was the game’s top overall scorer with 22 points. The two teams combined for 207 points, which was under the projected point total of 213.5, and Dallas covered as a 2-point favorite. Dallas launched 29 three pointers, making 14 of them (48.3 percent). Oklahoma City was, meanwhile, 9-34 (26.5 percent).

Games involving the Thunder have a slight tendency to finish under the total (52.9 percent). Oklahoma City heads into the contest with records of 22-12 straight up (SU) and 19-15 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Mavericks’ 34 games, 19 have finished over the total. Moreover, Dallas owns records of 16-18 SU and 21-13 ATS.

The Thunder’s Jerami Grant has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 16 points,5.4 rebounds,1.6 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Doncic has averaged 24 points,7.6 assists,6.6 rebounds,1.4 steals during that same time frame for the Mavericks.

This could end up being a mistake-prone game for the offense of Dallas. Dallas ranks 27th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.7 percent), while the disruptive defense of Oklahoma City forces the most turnovers in the NBA (16.6 percent).

Thunder at Mavericks Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Mavericks average 33.705882352941174 three pointers per game, which ranks 7 in the NBA. The Thunder rank 8 in three pointers allowed per game (29.764705882352942).
  • Oklahoma City ranks sixth in fast break points per game (16.8) while Dallas ranks last in fast break points allowed per game (16.3).
  • The Thunder rank third in points in the paint per game (53.9) while the Mavericks rank 20th (46.5).
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (20.9) while Dallas ranks 14th (17.0).
  • Oklahoma City ranks 4 in second chance points per game (15.147058823529411) while Dallas ranks 12 in second chance points allowed per game (12.735294117647058).
  • The Thunder average 10.4 steals per game, which ranks first in the league. The Mavericks rank 21st in steals allowed per game (8.5).
  • The Thunder rank 2 in rebounds per game (48.73529411764706) while the Mavericks rank 13 (45.3235294117647).
  • Oklahoma City ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.8) while Dallas ranks 25th (4.6).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 4-2 and Oklahoma City is 6-0.
  • In games where they score more than 100 points, the Mavericks are 16-16 and the Thunder are 20-7.
  • Dallas is 13-4 ATS at home, while Oklahoma City is 10-8 ATS on the road.
  • The Thunder have 12 unders and 6 overs in 18 road games.
  • The Mavericks have 9 overs and 8 unders in 17 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Thunder are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 4 overs and 1 under, while Oklahoma City has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Mavericks have been outscored by an average of 2.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has defeated opponents by an average of 0.7 points.
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 115.6 points per game (3.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (3.9 above their season average).