Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Prediction 03/05/19

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The Oklahoma City Thunder (39-24) will be at the Target Center to go head-to-head against the Minnesota Timberwolves (29-34) in a Northwest Division matchup. Action begins at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2019, and can be seen on Fox Sports – North.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

Neither team was able to cover in their last contest. The Thunder (9.5-point favorites) beat the Memphis Grizzlies, 99-95, while the Timberwolves (1-point favorites) fell to the Washington Wizards, 135-121. The Oklahoma City game finished 23 points under the projected point total of 217, while the Minnesota game went 14.5 points over the projected point total of 241.5.

Oklahoma City dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 29.8 (above their season average of 25.7) and a turnover percentage of 11.5 (better than their season average of 11.6). For those same stats, Memphis put up marks of 10.0 and 18.6, respectively. Minnesota, on the other hand, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.545 vs. 0.556). Karl-Anthony Towns fueled Minnesota with 28 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, was lifted by Dennis Schroder, who contributed 17 points, 12 rebounds and six assists.

The Timberwolves have won both matchups against the Thunder this season. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to score 236 points, which was over the projected point total of 229. Minnesota won 119-117, covering as a 9-point underdog. The Timberwolves’ 8.5 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Thunder, who had a mark of 14.2. Andrew Wiggins put up a double-double in the victory with 40 points and 10 rebounds.

Just over half of the Thunder’s games have finished under the projected point total. Oklahoma City comes into the game with records of 39-24 straight up (SU) and 33-30 against the spread (ATS).

Timberwolves games tend to go over the total (55.6 percent). Further, Minnesota owns records of 29-34 SU and 32-31 ATS.

Ball security could play a significant role in this showdown. Minnesota commits the third-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while the disruptive defense of Oklahoma City forces the most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.7 percent). Additionally, the Thunder could control the offensive glass in this meeting as they rank second in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.7 percent. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, rank 26th at grabbing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 74.9 percent.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves average 24.5 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Thunder rank 21st in assists allowed per game (25.1).
  • Oklahoma City averages 14.7 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 27th in second chance points allowed per game (14.7).
  • The Thunder average 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The Timberwolves rank 26th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fourth in fast break points per game (18.7) while Minnesota ranks 18th (12.1).
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (20.4) while Minnesota ranks 10th (17.7).
  • The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.6) while the Thunder rank 22nd (8.3).
  • The Thunder rank fifth in points in the paint per game (52.8) while the Timberwolves rank 15th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.5).
  • Oklahoma City ranks 15th in three pointers attempted per game (31.3) while Minnesota ranks 21st in three pointers allowed per game (32.9).
  • Oklahoma City ranks second in rebounds per game (48.0) while Minnesota ranks 19th in rebounds allowed per game (45.1).
  • Oklahoma City is 8-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Minnesota is 10-0.
  • The Timberwolves are 28-28 when they score over 100 points, while the Thunder are 36-18.
  • Oklahoma City is 17-15 ATS on the road, while Minnesota is 17-13 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 19 of the Thunder’s 32 road games, while 17 of the Timberwolves’ 30 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Timberwolves are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Thunder are 0-5.
  • In their last five games, Minnesota has 4 overs and 1 under, while Oklahoma City has 5 unders.
  • The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.8, up from 0.2 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (8.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.8 points per game (0.9 above their season average).