Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines – NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

Posts AdminArticles, College Football, Football

In a game featuring two squads ranked in the Top 10 nationally, the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-8.5) are paying a visit to their in-conference rival No. 10 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Kickoff for this big game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.

Betting Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines

In this Saturday Big Ten game, Ohio State is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 8.5 points. The Buckeyes are also receiving -350 moneyline odds while the Wolverines are +270. If one squad gets out in front early on it will create a worthy in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 52 points.

The opening line was 8. The game’s total has not changed after it was set initially at 52.

Each team has posted a good return this season as the Buckeyes have recorded 5.0 units while the Wolverines are up 2.0 units.

The Buckeyes have gone 11-0 straight up (SU), including 8-0 SU against conference opponents. The Wolverines are 9-2 SU overall and 6-2 SU in conference play.

The Buckeyes are hoping to stay undefeated following a 28-17 victory over Penn State last week. The Buckeyes allowed the Nittany Lions to pass for 128 yards and rush for 99 yards. On the offensive side of the ball, Justin Fields completed 16-of-22 passes for just 188 yards and two touchdowns. J.K. Dobbins (157 rushing yards on 36 attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Fields (68 yards on 21 carries) led the ground attack. K.J. Hill (four receptions, 46 yards, one TD) and Garrett Wilson (two catches, 21 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Michigan takes the field on Saturday after just getting a 39-14 win over Indiana. Shea Patterson completed 20-of-32 passes for 366 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Hassan Haskins (44 rushing yards on 13 attempts) mounted the running game while Nico Collins (six receptions, 165 yards, three TDs) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (five catches, 73 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the win.

Ohio State has run the ball on 63.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan has a rush percentage of 56.3 percent. The Buckeyes have rushed for 282.1 yards per game (including 296.1 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 33 scores on the ground this year. The Wolverines are averaging 155.1 rush yards per game (132.8 in conference) and have 24 total rushing TDs.

Based on the numbers so far, the Buckeyes may own the advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, since their backfield has logged 5.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 2.5 to opponents. The Wolverines have registered 4.0 yards per carry and allowed 2.8 YPC to opponents.

The Buckeyes offensive scheme has averaged 248.3 yards in the air overall (235.9 per game against conference opposition) and has 40 passing scores so far. The Wolverines have produced 247.5 pass yards per outing (267 in the Big 10) and have 23 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Ohio State appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 91.2 yards and pass for 126.2 yards per game. The Michigan defense has allowed 161.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Buckeyes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 1.75 to opposing QBs, while the Wolverines have given up a 4 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Fields has amassed 2,047 yards this year, and has connected on 69 percent of his 233 attempts with 29 scores through the air and only one interception. He has a pristine 9.63 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 13.30 over the last two outings.

Shea Patterson has managed to complete 155-of-268 passes for 2,139 yards, 17 TDs and five INTs for Michigan. His ANY/A sits at 7.49 for the season and 11.62 over his last two outings.

When these two teams met a year ago, Ohio State won handily 62-39.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Michigan, ATS Winner: Michigan, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Ohio State’s previous game was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 28-17 victory over Penn State.
  • Ohio State, as a team, has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.2 over its last two.
  • Michigan has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 2.7 over its past two.
  • Michigan has lost 10 fumbles this season while Ohio State has let 11 get away.
  • In its last three games, Ohio State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Michigan’s last match was set at 53.5. The under cashed in the 39-14 win over Indiana.
  • In its last three contests, Michigan is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Michigan has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a -7-point defeat to Penn State on October 19th representing the only loss over that span.
  • The Buckeyes offense has registered five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wolverines have accounted for nine such plays.
  • The Ohio State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Michigan has given up two such plays.
  • The Ohio State offense has created 31 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Michigan has created 13 such runs.
  • The Buckeyes defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wolverines have given up six such runs.
  • The Ohio State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 47 times this year. Michigan has registered just 34 sacks.