Ohio Bobcats at Nevada Wolf Pack: NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

Posts AdminArticles, College Football, Football

It’ll be a MAC-MWC showdown as the Ohio Bobcats are heavy favorites as they prepare to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Kickoff for this critical matchup is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN will showcase the action.

Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Ohio Bobcats

In this Friday game, Ohio is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Bobcats are also receiving -340 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are +260. If one team can create a bunch of points early it’ll create a decent betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 59 points.

The line initially opened at 6.5 and the total was originally set at 54, so it seems that sharp bettors have been siding with both the Bobcats and the over.

The hapless Bobcats have lost 6.7 units so far and are 4-8 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 7-5.

The Wolf Pack have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 14.0 units. The team is 5-6-1 ATS and has an even O/U record of 6-6.

The Bobcats have gone 6-6 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Wolf Pack are 7-5 SU.

The Bobcats are trying to keep things going after a solid 52-3 win over Akron on November 26. Nathan Rourke completed 20 passes on 28 attempts for 308 yards and four touchdowns. Rourke (37 rushing yards on 10 attempts, one TD) also led the running attack and was complemented by De’Montre Tuggle (78 yards on nine carries). Ty Walton (five receptions, 82 yards) and Shane Hooks (five catches, 81 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Nevada narrowly fell 33-30 to UNLV. Carson Strong completed 33-of-54 passes for 351 yards and one touchdown. Toa Taua (43 yards on 15 rush attempts) and Devonte Lee (44 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) mounted the running game while Elijah Cooks (12 receptions, 151 yards) and Dominic Christian (11 catches, 98 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Ohio’s run the ball on 59.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has an overall rush percentage of 48.7 percent. The Bobcats have run for 216.5 yards/game and have 33 scores on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are totaling 122.8 rushing yards per game and have 15 total rush TDs.

The Bobcats offense has averaged 226.8 yards in the air overall and has 21 passing scores so far. The Wolf Pack have put up 237.1 pass yards per outing and have 13 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Ohio should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 177.8 yards and pass for 223.8 yards per game. The Nevada defense has given up 259.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 137.9 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bobcats have given up an ANY/A of 7.05 to opposing QBs, while the Wolf Pack are yielding an ANY/A of 7.47.

Offensively, Rourke has amassed 2,409 passing yards this season, and has connected on 61 percent of his 290 attempts with 17 scores through the air and only five interceptions. Rourke has a 7.69 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 13.73 over the past two games.

We’re expecting the Bobcats to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Shane Hooks (436 yards, five TDs), O’Shaan Allison (648 rush yards, three rush TDs) and De’Montre Tuggle (494 rush yards, nine rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been significant focal points in the offensive game scripts for Ohio.

In the other huddle, Carson Strong has connected on 186-of-294 passes for 1,779 yards, seven TDs and seven INTs. Strong’s ANY/A sits at a less-than-ideal 4.74 for the season and 6.17 over his past two games.

The Wolf Pack also like to heavily feature their backfield. In addition to Elijah Cooks (669 receiving yards, six receiving TDs), Toa Taua (624 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Devonte Lee (216 rush yards, five rush TDs) have gotten a multitude of touches lately.

Ohio Bobcats vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Free Prediction

SU Winner: Ohio, ATS Winner: Ohio, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Nevada offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Ohio has lost 11.
  • The Nevada defensive unit has notched 22 sacks on the year while Ohio has 20.
  • Ohio has averaged 6.7 yards per carry over its past three contests and 6.9 over its last two.
  • Nevada has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.1 over its past two.