Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 17 Betting Preview

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In the final week of the NFL regular season, the Oakland Raiders (+14) are set to take on their AFC West foe Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Arrowhead Stadium. This late afternoon matchup will get going at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders

In this Sunday AFC game, Kansas City has been tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. The Raiders are also receiving +525 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -875. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 54 points. Multiple good live betting opportunities may present themselves during this showdown.

The game’s total has moved lower after originally being set at 54.5. The opening line of -14 has not changed.

The Raiders have lost 4.2 units this season and are 6-9 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-8.

The Chiefs have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors in 2018, gaining 6.0 units. They’re 8-6-1 ATS and 10 of their games have gone over the total.

The Raiders have gone just 4-11 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against AFC West opponents. The Chiefs are 11-4 SU overall and 4-1 SU against divisional foes.

The Raiders hope to make it two in a row 27-14 victory over Denver in Week 16. Derek Carr completed 19 passes on 26 attempts for just 167 yards. Doug Martin (107 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) led the running attack in the win. Jordy Nelson (seven receptions, 75 yards) and Jalen Richard (four catches, 40 yards) handled the receiving duties.

In Week 16, Seattle got the victory against this Kansas City crew by a score of 38-31. The Chiefs defense allowed the Seahawks to kill the clock by running for 210 yards on 43 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Doug Baldwin had a productive showing for Seattle, posting 126 yards on seven catches. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-40 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns. Damien Williams (103 rushing yards on 13 attempts) led the ground game in the defeat while Williams (seven receptions, 37 yards, one TD) and Travis Kelce (five catches, 54 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

When looking at offensive play-calling, each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Oakland has run the ball on 40.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Kansas City has a rush percentage of 39.3. The Raiders have produced 100.1 rush yards/game (including 106.4 per game versus West opponents) and have nine touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are totaling 117.1 rushing yards per game (106.2 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.

If 2018 results are any indication, then the Chiefs ought to have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has given up only 26 sacks while their D-line has registered 49 sacks. The Raiders offensive line has allowed 49 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 13 times.

The Raiders offensive scheme has averaged 258.1 yards through the air overall (250.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Chiefs have recorded 321.1 pass yards per contest (280 against AFC competition) and have 48 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Oakland should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 143.3 rush yards and 241.5 pass yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 302.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 132.5 yards per game on the ground. The Chiefs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.52 to opponents, while the Raiders have given up a 7.81 ANY/A.

Offensively, Carr is up to 3,601 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 336-of-482 attempts with 18 passing scores and eight interceptions. He’s got a 6.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.83 over the last two games.

We’re looking for Raiders to maintain tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. In addition to wideout Jordy Nelson (573 receiving yards and three touchdowns), Doug Martin (584 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Jalen Richard (249 rush yards, one rush TD, 523 receiving yards) have brought significant production to the offensive gameplans for Oakland.

Patrick Mahomes has connected on 345-of-522 passes for 4,573 yards, 46 TDs and 11 INTs for Kansas City. His ANY/A stands at 8.86 for the year and 7.78 across his last two games.

The Chiefs also like to leverage their backfield. In addition to Damien Williams (78 receiving yards, two receiving TDs), Tyreek Hill (141 rush yards, 1,332 receiving yards, 11 receiving TDs) and Travis Kelce (1,213 receiving yards and 10 TDs) have gotten a lot of touches recently.

Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Raiders, ATS Winner: Raiders, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 49 times this year. Oakland has recorded just 13 sacks.
  • Kansas City has lost six fumbles in 2018 while Oakland has let 12 get away.
  • The Raiders offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chiefs have put up 12 such plays.
  • The Oakland defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up eight such plays.
  • The Oakland offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas City has created 16 such runs.
  • Both teams have allowed 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Raiders have given up 47 running plays of 10+ yards while the Chiefs have given up 60 such plays.
  • The Over/Under for Kansas City’s last match was set at 54. The over cashed in the 38-31 loss to Seattle.
  • In its last three matchups, Kansas City is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • Over its last three contests, Oakland is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Oakland’s last game was set at 42. The under cashed in the team’s 27-14 triumph over Denver.
  • Oakland, as a team, has rushed for 3.3 yards per attempt over its past three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
  • Kansas City has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.9 over its last two.