The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (15-10, 5-7 ACC) visit No. 21 North Carolina to play the Tar Heels (19-7, 8-5 ACC) in what should be a high-scoring game. North Carolina opened as a 9.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 150.5 points. Action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, February 12, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPN.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The Fighting Irish beat the Florida State Seminoles in their last matchup, 84-69. Matt Farrell was the games high scorer with 28 points on 10-for-15 shooting. Notre Dame played a nearly perfect game. They had a ridiculous free throw rate of 0.364 (above their season average of 0.239) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.582 (above their season average of 0.521). For those same stats, Florida State recorded marks of 0.125 and 0.477, respectively.
In the Tar Heels last matchup, they defeated the North Carolina State Wolfpack, 96-89. North Carolina was lifted by Luke Maye, who was the top scorer from either team with 33 points on 15-for-22 shooting. The Tar Heels had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 46.9 (above their season average of 38.4) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.606 (above their season average of 0.524).
This contest figures to be a high-scoring affair as two of the nations top offenses clash. North Carolina currently ranks 25th with 114.7 points per 100 possessions and Notre Dame is 33rd (113.7). The Fighting Irish should be expected to protect the ball well. They rank 16th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 15.3 percent). Conversely, the Tar Heels force the 49th-fewest turnovers in the NCAA (opponents turnover percentage of 16.7 percent).
Games including these teams tend to finish over the projected point total. Notre Dame games have finished over 55.0 percent of the time, while North Carolina games have gone over 56.0 percent of the time. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Tar Heels have a significant advantage. They are 19-7 SU and 12-10-3 ATS, while the Fighting Irish are 15-10 SU and 9-11 ATS.
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Fighting Irish, it’s been T.J. Gibbs, who has averaged 21.8 points, while the Tar Heels have received solid contributions from Cameron Johnson (15.8 points).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 137 points, which was under the projected point total of 147. The Tar Heels won 69-68, but were unable to cover as 5-point favorites. North Carolina had a better turnover percentage (9.3 vs. 13.2). Notre Dame, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (45.5 vs. 34.2). Maye recorded a double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds Prediction
College Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – North Carolina, ATS Winner – Notre Dame, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Fighting Irish rank 77th in blocks per game (3.8) while the Tar Heels rank 191st in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
- Notre Dame ranks 45th in steals allowed per game (5.3) while North Carolina ranks 106th (6.1).
- Notre Dame is 5-6 ATS on the road with 7 unders and 4 overs.
- North Carolina is 7-3-2 ATS at home with 9 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
- North Carolina averages 17.8 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the nation. Notre Dame ranks 167th in assists allowed per game (13.9).
- The Fighting Irish average 23.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 111th in the nation. The Tar Heels rank 263rd in three pointers allowed per game (26.6).
- North Carolina averages 43.3 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the nation. Notre Dame ranks 130th in rebounds allowed per game (34.4).
Betting Trends:
- North Carolina is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Notre Dame is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Tar Heels average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.8, down from 9.7 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Fighting Irish have scored an average of 75.8 points per game (0.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 79.6 points per game (11.5 above their season average).
