The Wright State Raiders (17-4, 7-1 Hor) and their great offense will be 3.5-point favorites when they welcome the Northern Kentucky Norse (14-6, 6-2 Hor) and their stifling defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 141.5 points and it will air on ESPNU at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 24, 2020.
Northern Kentucky Norse at Wright State Raiders Betting Odds
The Norse dismantled the Cleveland State Vikings in their last outing, 75-49, comfortably covering as 13.5-point favorites. The Raiders, on the other hand, beat the Youngstown State Penguins,79-72, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. The Northern Kentucky game finished 6 points under the projected point total of 130, while the Wright State game finished 5 points over the projected point total of 146.
Northern Kentucky played a perfect game. They had an effective field goal percentage of 0.465 (below their season average of 0.533) and a turnover percentage of 12.8 (better than their season average of 17.6). For those same stats, Cleveland State was 0.314 and 17.2, respectively. The Raiders, meanwhile, had a ridiculously low turnover percentage of 7.0 (better than their season average of 14.1) and had a free throw rate of 0.303 (above their season average of 0.231). Wright State was led by Loudon Love, who recorded 21 points and nine rebounds. Trevon Faulkner had a solid performance for Northern Kentucky, finishing with 24 points.
The Norse took this series last year, taking two out of three games. In the last matchup, Northern Kentucky won 77-66. Northern Kentucky’s 0.614 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Wright State, who had a rate of 0.438. This is the first time these teams will meet this year.
Games featuring the Norse have typically gone under the O/U total (61.1 percent). Northern Kentucky heads into the game with records of 14-6 straight up (SU) and 11-6-1 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Northern Kentucky, games including the Raiders have a tendency to go over the O/U total (63.2 percent). Further, Wright State is 17-4 SU and 9-9-1 ATS.
The Norse’s Adrian Nelson has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 8 rebounds,7.0 points per game. Meanwhile, Love has averaged 16 points,11.2 rebounds,2.4 blocks,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Raiders.
This battle pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Wright State currently ranks 33rd in offensive efficiency and Northern Kentucky is 53rd in defensive efficiency.
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Wright State Raiders ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Wright State, ATS Winner – Wright State, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Wright State averages 41.4 rebounds per game, which ranks 11th in the country. Northern Kentucky ranks 182nd in rebounds allowed per game (36.4).
- The Norse rank eighth in blocks allowed per game (2.1) while the Raiders rank 64th (3.0).
- Northern Kentucky ranks 44th in steals per game (8.1) while Wright State ranks 99th (6.9).
- The Norse rank 31st in three pointers attempted per game (27.1) while the Raiders rank 165th (21.6).
- Wright State ranks 34th in assists allowed per game (10.4) while Northern Kentucky ranks 146th (12.8).
- Wright State is 3-5-1 ATS at home, while Northern Kentucky is 6-3-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 6 of the Raiders’ 9 home games, while 8 of the Norse’s 10 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Norse are 5-0 ATS over their last five games, while the Raiders are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Northern Kentucky has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Wright State has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Norse’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 20.6, up from 10.1 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Raiders have scored an average of 76.0 points per game (4.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 69.8 points per game (0.2 below their season average).
