The Roadrunners of UTSA (-22.5) are set to welcome their conference foe North Texas Mean Green to the Alamodome. The game is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: North Texas Mean Green vs. UTSA Roadrunners
North Texas is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 22.5 points to UTSA. If the Mean Green get down early on it will produce a reasonable in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 52 points.
This game’s total has not moved after it was set initially at 52. Having said that, the opening line was 18.5 so has recently moved up to 22.5.
The hapless Mean Green are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 8.0 units this season. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-10.
The Roadrunners have lost 3.0 units this year. The team is 3-8 ATS and seven of its games have gone over the total.
The Mean Green are 8-3 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against CUSA opponents. The Roadrunners are 3-8 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play.
The Mean Green just pulled off a 41-38 victory over Florida Atlantic last week. The passing game left much to be desired as Mason Fine completed 22-of-33 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. DeAndre Torrey (184 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the win. Rico Bussey, Jr. (five receptions, 86 yards) and Michael Lawrence (five catches, 47 yards) shared the receiving duties.
UTSA were just shut out 23-0 by Marshall. The defense allowed the Thundering Herd to pass for 387 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 118 yards. Tyre Brady torched the defense, recording 162 yards on six catches for Marshall. For UTSA, Bryce Rivers completed 16-of-31 passes for 158 yards and one interception. Brenden Brady (4 yards on 10 rush attempts) handled the ground attack in the defeat as Greg Campbell Jr. (seven receptions, 84 yards) and Sheldon Jones (three catches, 18 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each team has a strikingly similar (47-53) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Mean Green have produced 153.0 rush yards per game (including 145.9 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have 23 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Roadrunners haven’t been as productive, as they’re logging 83.7 rush yards per game (76.1 in conference) and have five total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it appears the Mean Green should own the edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 4.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Roadrunners have tallied 2.8 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.0 to opponents.
The Mean Green offense has logged 315.9 yards/contest through the air overall (299.1 per game versus conference opposition) and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Roadrunners have produced 149.9 pass yards per contest (141 in the CUSA) and have eight total pass scores.
Defensively, North Texas should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 111.8 yards and throw for 244.0 yards per game. The UTSA defense has allowed 271.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mean Green are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.76 to opponents, while the Roadrunners have given up an ugly 8.78 ANY/A.
Offensively, Fine is already up to 3,174 passing yards this year. He’s completed 64 percent of his 377 attempts with 23 passing scores and only three interceptions. Fine has an 8.44 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.11 over the past two games.
DeAndre Torrey (642 rushing yards, 11 rush TDs, 143 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Rico Bussey, Jr. (908 receiving yards, 10 receiving TDs) and Jalen Guyton (596 receiving yards, five TDs) have all played significant roles of late.
Bryce Rivers has completed 16-of-31 passes for 158 yards, zero TDs and one INT for UTSA. His ANY/A sits at a horrendous 2.06 for the season and 3.51 over his past two outings.
Greg Campbell Jr. Marquez McNair and Brenden Brady have combined to account for 246 total yards as a trio over the last two outings.
These two teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 29-26 win for North Texas.
North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners Free Prediction
SU Winner: UTSA, ATS Winner: UTSA, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- Both teams have lost eight fumbles this year.
- The North Texas defense has sacked opposing QBs 30 times this season. UTSA has recorded just 22 sacks.
- North Texas, as a team, has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.8 over its last two.
- UTSA has averaged 2.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 1.6 over its past two.
- Over its last three games, UTSA is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for North Texas’ previous game was set at 62.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-38 win over Florida Atlantic.
- Over its last three matchups, North Texas is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for UTSA’s previous matchup was set at 48. The under cashed in the team’s 23-0 loss to Marshall.
